2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (3 Viewers)

[Iron]

Well there's a nice long debate about whether Howard's brilliant or lucky. I favour the luck side, or more specifically Labor's hitherto incompetence.

 

[doofyduck01]

Either way, they both are going to/have made promises they will back out on when they get in, its common practice.

Rudd will end up doing a backflip and end up more conservative than Howard...but hey i'm a cynic hehe

John has many rabbits, or many ways to rig elections...

 

[Iron]

It's irrelevant to your argument whether Howard's success has been due to luck. Even if it is entirely self made, surely you must accept the possibility that he could get lucky on this occassion. Which is why your over confidence in a Labor win is misplaced.

Clearly you understand my soviet propaganda stylings, so I commend you on that. But of course I agree with you that luck is a deciding factor, as with any successful outcome for anything.

However for full theories on luck and devine providence, pls see God thread

 

[Triangulum]

Tomorrow's newspoll in the Australian shows the two-party-preferred at ALP 59 - 41 Coalition. Preferred PM: 48 Rudd, 37 Howard.

Probably a bit exaggerated, but the movement from last poll is outside the margin of error, so ouch.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22356737-601,00.html

 

[sthcross.dude]

Just checked the betting odds

Labor 1.47
Coalition 2.70

Labor has increased again. At $2.70 does anyone think the coalition could be worth a bet?

 

[Triangulum]

AC morgan poll is the most accurate out of the bunch

ACNielsen and Morgan are different polls. Which one are you referring to?

 

[Rafy]

Probally not morgan.
Galaxy was the most accurate at the last election.

On the latest Newspoll, it does look like somewhat of an outlier result. A 5% jump in the primary in just 2 weeks? Greens on only 3%? The poll also stuffs up the preference allocations. Is the current state of play 59-41? Most likely not. But nonetheless, it confirms that the ALP are still well ahead. Even this late in the year, the polls are hovering around the difference between a landslide, and annihilation.

 

[Rafy]

PM tipped to call poll next week

I think he'll call it this coming week. Not much point holding off the inevitable anymore.
If not next week, then the week after.

Update: Apparently not.... Defiant PM rules out 'panic' poll

 

[jb_nc]

Not much point holding off the inevitable anymore.

You mean resigning

 

[Rafy]

Betfair - Seat of Bennelong
McKew: 1.77
Howard: 1.83

McKew was on 2.80 just a couple of days ago.
___

Centrebet - Election Winner
LABOR 1.37
COALITION 3.10


http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/avgWeeklyProb.pdf

 

[Rafy]

I won't stay full term: Howard

JOHN Howard has told his party room that he "can't go on forever" and will hand over to a successor well into the next term, The Australian learnt this evening.

The Prime Minister said he would see through his agenda and retire eventually.

Mr Howard said he did not want to be like state Labor leaders Steve Bracks or Peter Beattie who pretended they were going to stay the full term. [...]

He confirmed this on the 7.30 report.

 

[jimmayyy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Libs for sure. Even though I prefer Costello to Howard, I'd still rather Howard than Beazley or any of the other hacks in Labor.

lol that you will get your wish.


my original post some months ago in this thread was something to the effect of "i'll be voting howard/coalition unless something drastic happens between now and then". now that howard has announced he will step down after a year if re-elected (with costello being the obvious choice, although if he does indeed have large factional support, they are keeping it to themselves at the moment) has made me rethink my options.

if it becomes a clear cut certainty that we will have a Prime Minister Costello in 2009 i will have to seriously consider some of the independants or democracts if any, or, if worse comes to worse (i cant believe i am saying this) labor

 

[_dhj_]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKN4qWo7x1Y

 

[jimmayyy]

I think those are good odds for the Libs.

I still think the Libs are in a much better position that the polls disclose.

i tend to agree - every time labour has gone into an election in a similar position as this, they've been thrased (see; keating, beazley, latham)

 

[jimmayyy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKN4qWo7x1Y

god he was an arrogant, immature fuckwit.

 

[_dhj_]

god he was an arrogant, immature fuckwit.

Haha poor bitter deluded libs.... truth is, you guys have no chance of winning the election and howard has no chance of winning in Bennelong. That's undeniable.

 

[Lachlan18]

After a decade in power, I'm finding it really hard to grasp what Howard has actually done. Is it underfund Universities and increase HECS fees? Is it undermine Medicare? Is it remove workers' awards and give them inferior standards? Is it intermingle religion with politics to please one's neo-con Christian fundie voter base? Is it developing a dangerous Yes-man relationship with the US? Is it giving us shitty Broadband? Or being one of the most anti-infrastructure governments out there? Is it being one of the only countries in the world (together with the US - Surprise?) that denies climate change? And what about Nuclear power? The Iraq War? Attacking minority groups (gay people) and installing discriminatory legislation? Or guillotining debate in the Senate and thus, degrading democracy? Or what about basing every election campaign on dirty politics and fear mongering; targetting the ignorance of people?

Honestly, you can't put all your eggs in one basket and say "Da economy is fine y'all", when every other sector has failed. If you're a failure in every other department, then you're a failed government. The only good that Howard has done is be anti-guns and add a little reform to Superannuation. Of course, Superannuation was a Labor-invention and is testament to the amount of hardcore important reforms which we still have today thanks to past Labor governments.

What do we leave behind with Howard? We live behind a country that has become more insular and more divided. A country that has had its foundations ripped out, and its reputation ruined.

This country really needs Rudd and I hope we never make the same mistake in voting for these Liberal/Tory failures again! They are not in it for the interests of the country, but for the interests of themselves! The only thing they can brag about is "the economy" which doesn't explain why my working entitlements are now gonna be shitter than before!

 

[jb_nc]

After a decade in power, I'm finding it really hard to grasp what Howard has actually done. Is it underfund Universities and increase HECS fees? Is it undermine Medicare? Is it remove workers' awards and give them inferior standards? Is it intermingle religion with politics to please one's neo-con Christian fundie voter base? Is it developing a dangerous Yes-man relationship with the US? Is it giving us shitty Broadband? Or being one of the most anti-infrastructure governments out there? Is it being one of the only countries in the world (together with the US - Surprise?) that denies climate change? And what about Nuclear power? The Iraq War? Attacking minority groups (gay people) and installing discriminatory legislation? Or guillotining debate in the Senate and thus, degrading democracy? Or what about basing every election campaign on dirty politics and fear mongering; targetting the ignorance of people?

Honestly, you can't put all your eggs in one basket and say "Da economy is fine y'all", when every other sector has failed. If you're a failure in every other department, then you're a failed government. The only good that Howard has done is be anti-guns and add a little reform to Superannuation. Of course, Superannuation was a Labor-invention and is testament to the amount of hardcore important reforms which we still have today thanks to past Labor governments.

What do we leave behind with Howard? We live behind a country that has become more insular and more divided. A country that has had its foundations ripped out, and its reputation ruined.

This country really needs Rudd and I hope we never make the same mistake in voting for these Liberal/Tory failures again! They are not in it for the interests of the country, but for the interests of themselves! The only thing they can brag about is "the economy" which doesn't explain why my working entitlements are now gonna be shitter than before!

hi, i'm from the mindless hatred of john howard party, and boy, have i got the party for you

 

[Lachlan18]

hi, i'm from the mindless hatred of john howard party, and boy, have i got the party for you

No, you're from the mindless party in general.

Now run away while you go and strip me of my penalty rates, make my HECS loan the size of a mortgage and try to scare me that interest rates will be 300% if Howard loses.

Meanwhile, latest Morgan Poll = 59 Labor/41 Tories-Christian-Fundamentalists. I win! :rofl:

 

[jb_nc]

Now run away while you go and strip me of my penalty rates, make my HECS loan the size of a mortgage and try to scare me that interest rates will be 300% if Howard loses.

Um, yeah, I don't really care about those things.