Will the Iranian Government fall and what will this mean? (1 Viewer)

[loquasagacious]

IRANIAN riot police used batons and tear gas to break up defiant protests after prayers in Tehran, where Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the country's most powerful clerics, warned the regime was "in crisis".

Rafsanjani - a bitter rival of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - broke his month-long silence to issue a warning that the Islamic Republic had lost popular support. His address stopped short of directly attacking Khamenei or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose victory in June's poll has been widely denounced as a fraud.

"Doubt has been created," Mr Rafsanjani said. "Where people are not present or their vote isn't considered, that government is not Islamic."

Well it seems to have dropped off the news radar recently but based on this article the unrest in Iran is continuing. Do you think the Iranian Government will fall? And what would it mean if it did?

I can only really offer anecdotes from friends who have been to Iran but their feeling was that the youth were very liberal (surprisingly so) albeit mostly behind closed doors. E.g. go to house party in a hijab and once inside ditch it to reveal a cocktail dress. This kind of liberalism among the youth and a median age of about 26 would suggest that even if the Government doesn't fall now it will soon...

In my opinion a more liberal Iran would benefit the whole region and help offset growing instability in Saudi Arabia.

What are your thoughts?

 

[Mu5hi]

nah it will be fine

 

[loller]

Well it seems to have dropped off the news radar recently but based on this article the unrest in Iran is continuing. Do you think the Iranian Government will fall? And what would it mean if it did?

I can only really offer anecdotes from friends who have been to Iran but their feeling was that the youth were very liberal (surprisingly so) albeit mostly behind closed doors. E.g. go to house party in a hijab and once inside ditch it to reveal a cocktail dress. This kind of liberalism among the youth and a median age of about 26 would suggest that even if the Government doesn't fall now it will soon...

In my opinion a more liberal Iran would benefit the whole region and help offset growing instability in Saudi Arabia.

What are your thoughts?

The el presidente still has quite a large amount of supporters

civil war would be mad

 

[Empyrean444]

I cannot see it collapsing - no successful uprising will result unless the Liberal youth get the army on side, which does not appear to be happening.

 

[loquasagacious]

I cannot see it collapsing - no successful uprising will result unless the Liberal youth get the army on side, which does not appear to be happening.

In time though the liberal youth will be the army. Where else do recruits come from? Note I'm not saying that the upper echelons of the army will become more liberal but the enlisted soldiers and junior officers will. History has shown us many revolutions lead by the junior officers - especially in the Middle-East region...

 

[A High Way Man]

m8's 50% of the iranian population is under 25. the equation is clear enough, the regime will fall sooner or later. the question is - will it be a repeat of the 1979 revolution, where the new boss was same as the old one?

I say yes. God has forever doomed the Persians to be ruled by despots! + Also, the opposition is also very entrenched in the system, we'll never see a revolution where the final result is a western liberal democracy. The only hope is a revolution within the revolution

 

[mr_robato]

m8's 50% of the iranian population is under 25. the equation is clear enough, the regime will fall sooner or later. the question is - will it be a repeat of the 1979 revolution, where the new boss was same as the old one?

I say yes. God has forever doomed the Persians to be ruled by despots! + Also, the opposition is also very entrenched in the system, we'll never see a revolution where the final result is a western liberal democracy. The only hope is a revolution within the revolution

(I haven't followed this issue as closely as I should have to be able to comment to excuse me if I am wrong)



I feel the elections couldn't have possibly been rigged, simply due to the total lack of civil unrest outside Tehran. I guess those desperate for clubbing and FOXTEl reside the the more upbeat Tehran (Tehran being economic center hence the greater desire for western attributes being centered in this small area).

I am not an expert on Iran, so chillax, don't scream at me.




Robato

 

[A High Way Man]

I thought about that, but i have read about there being protests all over the country, especially in the days following 12 june election

 

[Kwayera]

I agree with Kieran - the Iran Republic has been sowing the seeds of its own desctruction for a while now, and I would be very surprised if some kind of serious political revolution didn't arise sooner rather than later.

 

[loquasagacious]

(I haven't followed this issue as closely as I should have to be able to comment to excuse me if I am wrong)



I feel the elections couldn't have possibly been rigged, simply due to the total lack of civil unrest outside Tehran. I guess those desperate for clubbing and FOXTEl reside the the more upbeat Tehran (Tehran being economic center hence the greater desire for western attributes being centered in this small area).

I am not an expert on Iran, so chillax, don't scream at me.




Robato

Don't believe in screaming the below from the freakonomics blog may change your mind about electoral fraud....

After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner of Iran’s June 12 presidential election, protesters have been crying fraud. In a Washington Post op-ed, Bernd Beber and Alexandra Scacco claim that the truth lies in the digits of the vote count. Humans are bad at making up fraudulent numbers, they write, and the fact that the vote counts for the different provinces contain “too many 7’s and not enough 5’s in the last digit” and not enough non-adjacent digits points to made-up numbers. Iran’s election monitors, meanwhile, acknowledged that the number of votes exceeded the number of voters, but deny fraud.

Emphasis mine. Source: Numbers Are Bad Liars - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[B_B_J]

Why do people want Iran to have a western liberal democracy?

I rather them have a democracy than have a system to appease its masters in London and Washington.

Some people need to get over this notion that our system is perfect or the best possible system, because it is not.

 

[A High Way Man]

Why do people want Iran to have a western liberal democracy?

I rather them have a democracy than have a system to appease its masters in London and Washington.

Some people need to get over this notion that our system is perfect or the best possible system, because it is not.

dunno - maybe because 7 out of the 10 'most democratic' countries as measured by the economist also turn up in the top 10 countries when measuring 'human development index'?\

so it may not prove it, but i'd like to see your evidence.

I thought it was common sense.

 

[A High Way Man]

I agree with Kieran - the Iran Republic has been sowing the seeds of its own desctruction for a while now, and I would be very surprised if some kind of serious political revolution didn't arise sooner rather than later.

Islamic Republic*

 

[loquasagacious]

Why do people want Iran to have a western liberal democracy?

I rather them have a democracy than have a system to appease its masters in London and Washington.

Some people need to get over this notion that our system is perfect or the best possible system, because it is not.

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.

PS: good point Vanush

 

[Empyrean444]

In time though the liberal youth will be the army. Where else do recruits come from? Note I'm not saying that the upper echelons of the army will become more liberal but the enlisted soldiers and junior officers will. History has shown us many revolutions lead by the junior officers - especially in the Middle-East region...

I was referring to the prospect of an immediate/more short term coup, but it also depends on how we define 'sooner' and 'later'. For example, in, say 20 years, I think there may be a good chance of it happening; in 5 or even 10 years, probably not. Even though the liberal youth may form the majority of the 'army of tomorrow', there are simply too many complexities for this to happen in a short period of time. First, we must realise that some youth (even if they are at the very least an urban minority) are and will be conservative and, given this, probably more likely to join the army. And even with large numbers of new recruits, we cannot be certain of the success (or lack thereof) of indoctrination and the instilling of nationalism among the soldiers. Moreover the organisation of one massed revolt - one big and coordinated enough to split the country or overthrow the entire structure of the govt and military - would be massive and incredibly difficult to trigger to any real ends. A large portion of the military would have to be brought over and properly organised, because the would be rebels not only have the obstinate elements of the military to crush, but also the revolutionary guards. This could happen inasmuch as one small revolts triggers many, many more which collectively destroy the ruling super structure, but such a chain reaction will require further weakening of the state and more sources of unsettlement to trigger.

 

[Kwayera]

Islamic Republic*

Whatever works

 

[loquasagacious]

I was referring to the prospect of an immediate/more short term coup, but it also depends on how we define 'sooner' and 'later'. For example, in, say 20 years, I think there may be a good chance of it happening; in 5 or even 10 years, probably not. Even though the liberal youth may form the majority of the 'army of tomorrow', there are simply too many complexities for this to happen in a short period of time. First, we must realise that some youth (even if they are at the very least an urban minority) are and will be conservative and, given this, probably more likely to join the army. And even with large numbers of new recruits, we cannot be certain of the success (or lack thereof) of indoctrination and the instilling of nationalism among the soldiers. Moreover the organisation of one massed revolt - one big and coordinated enough to split the country or overthrow the entire structure of the govt and military - would be massive and incredibly difficult to trigger to any real ends. A large portion of the military would have to be brought over and properly organised, because the would be rebels not only have the obstinate elements of the military to crush, but also the revolutionary guards. This could happen inasmuch as one small revolts triggers many, many more which collectively destroy the ruling super structure, but such a chain reaction will require further weakening of the state and more sources of unsettlement to trigger.

In the coming days/weeks/months a revolution seems unlikely (though not impossible). In the 5-10 year window it seems quite likely. The pressures which are building up are just too great, perhaps the Government will become more moderate - if not I think a revolution of some kind would be on the cards. Most likely a soft revolution as has been seen in Eastern Europe as opposed to a hard revolution. When a soft revolution is large and determined enough the military will not have the stomach to crush it (and rightly so).

PS: Iran has conscription so they all go through the forces.

 

[furiousteddy]

Khamenei made a speech on Monday warning the political elites against any more civil disobidience. A revolution would not likely happen in my opinion, I think a power struggle is currently on the way between Rafsfanjani and Khamenei. Rafsfanjani and Mousavi are not liberal democrats, they actually want the current system to stay but probarly with several adjustments. Apparently people are now calling for a refenrendum;
Iran's supreme leader warns protesters to end campaign of civil disobedience - Los Angeles Times

 

[Empyrean444]

PS: Iran has conscription so they all go through the forces.

Ok. In that case I can see where you are coming from.

 

[banco55]

Why do people want Iran to have a western liberal democracy?

I rather them have a democracy than have a system to appease its masters in London and Washington.

Some people need to get over this notion that our system is perfect or the best possible system, because it is not.

Which system of Government is better then western democracy?