Whites to be minority in US by 2050: study (1 Viewer)

[accolade]

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Immigration will drive the population of the United States sharply upward between now and 2050, and will push whites into a minority, projections by the Pew Research Center showed Monday.
"If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005," an increase of nearly 50 percent, the study by the Washington-based think-tank said.
More than 80 percent of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving in the country and their US-born children, who will make up nearly one in five Americans by 2050 compared with one in eight in 2005, it said.
Whites, who currently make up around two-thirds of the US population, will become a minority (47 percent) by 2050, the report said.
The Hispanic population, currently the largest minority group, will triple in size and double in percentage terms from 14 percent in 2005 to 29 percent in 2050, the report said.
The Asian population will roughly double in percentage terms, from five percent to nine percent, while the black population will remain static at around 13 percent.
The projections are based on trends over the past 50 years, during which legal and illegal immigration have played an increasing role in US population growth, the report said.
From 1960 to 2005, new immigrants and their US-born descendants accounted for 51 percent of population increase, and for 58 percent from 1980 to 2005, the report said.
But, the report warned, "possible future changes in immigration policy" could impact the projections.
Illegal immigration has become a top issue in the race for the US presidency, especially among Republican candidates, most of whom favor of a crackdown.

- http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080211/ts_alt_afp/uspopulationimmigrationethnic

 

[Zrap]

Care about US?

 

[chicky_pie]

America has like over 12 million ILLEGAL immigrants living in America, if they do not want whites to be a minority, deport them all.

 

[Slidey]

Meanwhile, by 2050, Australia's population will have grown from 21 million to between 20 million and 30 million.

Which, once we sort out population ageing, can only be a good thing; the bigger the population the harder it is to control, the higher the dissent, and the higher the discontentment.

 

[ari89]

 

[chicky_pie]

Meanwhile, by 2050, Australia's population will have grown from 21 million to between 20 million and 30 million.

Which, once we sort out population ageing, can only be a good thing; the bigger the population the harder it is to control, the higher the dissent, and the higher the discontentment.

I think it would reach at least 35 million.

 

[Slidey]

Unless people in European countries (including Australia and New Zealnd, but strangely not including America - probably due to immigration) start to have lots of babies again, that's unlikely, CP.

Government & independent reports predict an upper bound of 30 million (and from memory the figure for 2100 is also 30 million max, but that's less easy to predict).

Consider that we have less than replacement level Total Fertility Rate (replacement is 2.10 and Australia has plateaued at 1.70 or so - which is the rate used for the average projection).

Ah yes, here it is:
The upper bound projection gives: about 28 million by 2051 and 33 million by 2101 .
The middle projection gives: 26 million by 2051 and 25.5 million by 2101.
The lower bound projection gives: 24 million by 2051 and 22.5 million by 2101.

Immigration is the only thing increasing Australia's population; ignoring immigration rates, Australia would have negative population growth for all three projections (since even the upper bound projection only assumes 1.90 TFR).

Here's a world-map of Total Fertility Rates: Blue is least, red and purple are most. Interestingly, I did not know China had sub-replacement TFR (1.75), though that is good to hear... though it'll be very interesting to see how China handles an ageing population!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/Fertility_rate_world_map_2.png

Note how Japan has 1.23 TFR. Australia is currently 1.76.

Looks like most immigration will be from Africa and the Middle East. That should be... interesting.

 

[wuddie]

^ well said. it is quite believable, given the amount of baby boomers we got in this country. i am honestly worried about the health care system when the baby boomers retire and become the burden of society. it is crap enough as it stands, and to think its capacity to handle extra loading.

but once our parents pass away (touch wood), the population should hobble around the 25-26 mil mark. unless we open up the border, of course.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Who the crap would want to migrate to the USA.

Seriously, the country has every imaginable problem, and the most nutjob leaders who don't know how to fix anything. Unless Obama gets elected, it may as well cease to exist.

 

[chicky_pie]

Unless people in European countries (including Australia and New Zealnd, but strangely not including America - probably due to immigration) start to have lots of babies again, that's unlikely, CP.

Government & independent reports predict an upper bound of 30 million (and from memory the figure for 2100 is also 30 million max, but that's less easy to predict).

Consider that we have less than replacement level Total Fertility Rate (replacement is 2.10 and Australia has plateaued at 1.70 or so - which is the rate used for the average projection).

Ah yes, here it is:
The upper bound projection gives: about 28 million by 2051 and 33 million by 2101 .
The middle projection gives: 26 million by 2051 and 25.5 million by 2101.
The lower bound projection gives: 24 million by 2051 and 22.5 million by 2101.

Immigration is the only thing increasing Australia's population; ignoring immigration rates, Australia would have negative population growth for all three projections (since even the upper bound projection only assumes 1.90 TFR).

Here's a world-map of Total Fertility Rates: Blue is least, red and purple are most. Interestingly, I did not know China had sub-replacement TFR (1.75), though that is good to hear... though it'll be very interesting to see how China handles an ageing population!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/Fertility_rate_world_map_2.png

Note how Japan has 1.23 TFR. Australia is currently 1.76.

Looks like most immigration will be from Africa and the Middle East. That should be... interesting.

oh shoot, as long as they lift the baby bonuses, maybe in the future I'd have 10 kids = $100, 000


...But i think migrants from Africa/Middle East gonna take that opportunity the most

 

[chicky_pie]

Who the crap would want to migrate to the USA.

Seriously, the country has every imaginable problem, and the most nutjob leaders who don't know how to fix anything. Unless Obama gets elected, it may as well cease to exist.

I think migrants think America is = Hollywood life :rofl:

 

[BIGTYMA]

lol this reminds me of chris rock.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiJVK7m6IZk&feature=related
start watching from 8.20

 

[DeathB4Life]

Whites, who currently make up around two-thirds of the US population, will become a minority (47 percent) by 2050, the report said.

non whites: theyre all the same

 

[Serius]

non whites: theyre all the same

haha i was about to comment on that.

Its like whites vs the rest, everyone who isnt white is grouped together and whichever of the two groups is smaller is the minority.

 

[44Ronin]

This thread should be aborted; just like the posters who think they can find humour in such a thread.