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the GOLD thread (2 Viewers)

abbeyroad

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I mean just look at the trend you fools gold has been trending down since last week it would take at least ~2 days' rally to signify a trend reversal, but even then there's a chance that it's just a dead cat bounce

just keep shorting shares if you're that bearish I doubt many of you know how to hedge your long on gold
 

Garygaz

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clearly you hedge gold by buying more gold
 

dionb2014

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Well if I told you where I got the 5000 from I would give away my secret wouldn't I. No not really, I think 5000 is a conservative estimate and I'm not really trying to take the piss by saying it will rise for ever because of course we all know the supply is becoming smaller and smaller. I am really referring to the instability of the world economy. The 5000 came from the fact of how much gold has risen in the past 5 years paralleled with the next decade. Really I'm saying it will rise further because even more economics turmoil is to come.
 

dionb2014

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Hold it buddy. I'm no economist but if you bail out now you will be even more pissed when it rises again.
 

dionb2014

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You could short the gold price with a slightly positive margin therefore leveling out your risk to some extend. If that is what you need to sleep at night even though we all know gold will be going up. If your really stressed just hedge it bro.
 

Bored_of_HSC

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When it goes back up, bring back the old days of going to Ballarat or Bendigo to STRIKE GOLD!!!!
 

abbeyroad

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Well if I told you where I got the 5000 from I would give away my secret wouldn't I. No not really, I think 5000 is a conservative estimate and I'm not really trying to take the piss by saying it will rise for ever because of course we all know the supply is becoming smaller and smaller. I am really referring to the instability of the world economy. The 5000 came from the fact of how much gold has risen in the past 5 years paralleled with the next decade. Really I'm saying it will rise further because even more economics turmoil is to come.
hahahahahahaha the world economy is not as bad as most bears make it out to be. despite the slowdown in europe and the us growth in china remains promising and the world economy is set to grow by 4% this year, I give it about 3-4 years at most before we recover, at which point gold will crash as investors return to securities. what you think institutional investors enjoy speculating?

I mean we just got out of the credit crunch, china had recently contracted its money supply and the last time I checked europe and the us aren't printing out money 24/7. there simply isn't enough panic and liquidity around at the moment to push gold to 4000 let alone 5000.

the only plausible way for gold to get to anywhere near 5000 is if everyone were to go back to the gold standard. fuck if the world economy were to crash tomorrow people won't even buy gold, they won't even buy t bonds, they'll hold onto cash.
 

dionb2014

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Hold onto cash. The banks won't be reliable, as you said t-bonds will be not an option either but gold is a hedge against the world economy. If there is epic instability the financial institutions with billions to throw around will have no choice but to buy gold. Look I am being a bit of a bear but I wouldn't bet on your 3-4 year recovery as there definitely will be another dip that could push people into insanity and when the market is insane we have problems.
 

abbeyroad

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hahahahahahah have you looked at the global stock markets lately valuation is trending down, if it were to plunge any further share prices would almost be equal to net asset value per share. do you honestly think that by then investors "will have no choice but to buy gold"????? what you think everyone is stupid? shares pay dividends, gold doesn't. the only reason people flock to gold now is because it's seen as less risky than shares. but when gold becomes overbought and stocks become virtually risk free guess where the money's gonna go?

did you pull your "definitely will be another dip " out of your ass?
 

Garygaz

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hmm okay so i've been doing some reading today.

first of all some things i didn't know - gold has been issued by bullion banks at a rate of 45x the actual amount of gold they own. in theory with a market trading in gold certificates this has no real problem, only if the owners of the certificates on mass request the physical bullions that they are entitled to. this number is unprecedented, and over the last 3 years, there has been a slow increase in the rate of gold being requested through certificates, a thing to keep an eye on.

the roman empire was originally completely backed by precious metals, their coins made from silver and gold. eventually due to the rapid expansion of the empire, they printed money, also essentially converting to FIAT (partly) (back then they clipped coins, remelted them, mixed them with copper) hence reducing the 'value' of each coin. in 301 ad because of inflation the edict of prices was introduced which prohibited any shopkeeper selling goods above government mandated prices at penalty of death and also froze all wages. but as they produced more coins, merchants still rose prices (some were killed) and many closed business. in the end 20% of its citizens were living of todays version of food stamps (wheat hand outs). eventually rome adopted a massive military recruitment and public infrastructure spending (US gov/agency related spending accounts for 50% of their GDP) eventually led to the first ever case of hyperinflation.

today in the US 1 in 4 children is fed by gov. subsidized food stamps.


as of dec '10 it is 43million

an interesting corellation, i thought.

Berlin WWII, exact same thing. massive military spending, fiat currency not linked to gold. i think it was something like 8 bullions of gold in 1945 could have bought you an entire block of units/houses in central berlin. a single egg went from 8c to 80billion marks. complete collapse of the economy.


this is literally kids playing with millions of marks. worthless, however.

ugh i learnt a lot today. so much i want to discuss/argue about.

still am skeptical about the idea of gold, yes it clearly has historical precedent, just from a logical point of view to have it as a substitute/hold of wealth in a collapsed economy is nonsensical to a degree.
 

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