pete shearman
Member
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2006
- Messages
- 59
- Gender
- Male
- HSC
- 2006
i'm supposed to be studying but am too bored so i'm on this site.
having read through these posts i've notced there's been some pretty simplistic analyses of the war. eg. the US should leave because war is bad. hopefully it will become more intellectual in later posts.
iraq really is a complex situation as some have already acknowledged. i feel that what the americans are experiencing in iraq reflects, to an extent, some of the difficulties the british faced in northern ireland. namely a military force that wants to retreat but cannot owing to the potential for civil war between two opposing communities. the americans at the moment are perceived by many in the west as barely holding together a fractured, increasingly lawless nation.
however, to insurgents they are seen as an occupying force that must be removed. what can america do? it retreats and violence will certainly escalate between shiite and sunni, it stays and it will suffer more and more casualties. essentially, like NI, this is a problem requiring a political and not military solution.
i'm predicting that the war is unwinnable. whether this is the case or not should be confirmed by the september report this year which will look at the success of bush's surge in baghdad. assuming it fails, america will have to concede military defeat and talk to its enemies. eg. iran. rice is already talking.
it looks as though partition will be the political outcome. america will negotiate with iran, abandon its axis of evil rhetoric, and have to concede major concessions to the iranians in return for their intervention. in due time, we will have a clearer idea of what awaits iraq politically.
we should move beyond looking at iraq as simply a war. it is sectarian conflict at its worse - and history teaches us that such conflicts are never resolved by violence alone. it is a disintegrating state which may no longer exist in future years. so as lenin once said, what is to be done? partition? dictatorship? a combination of the two?
what political options are available to the US government?
having read through these posts i've notced there's been some pretty simplistic analyses of the war. eg. the US should leave because war is bad. hopefully it will become more intellectual in later posts.
iraq really is a complex situation as some have already acknowledged. i feel that what the americans are experiencing in iraq reflects, to an extent, some of the difficulties the british faced in northern ireland. namely a military force that wants to retreat but cannot owing to the potential for civil war between two opposing communities. the americans at the moment are perceived by many in the west as barely holding together a fractured, increasingly lawless nation.
however, to insurgents they are seen as an occupying force that must be removed. what can america do? it retreats and violence will certainly escalate between shiite and sunni, it stays and it will suffer more and more casualties. essentially, like NI, this is a problem requiring a political and not military solution.
i'm predicting that the war is unwinnable. whether this is the case or not should be confirmed by the september report this year which will look at the success of bush's surge in baghdad. assuming it fails, america will have to concede military defeat and talk to its enemies. eg. iran. rice is already talking.
it looks as though partition will be the political outcome. america will negotiate with iran, abandon its axis of evil rhetoric, and have to concede major concessions to the iranians in return for their intervention. in due time, we will have a clearer idea of what awaits iraq politically.
we should move beyond looking at iraq as simply a war. it is sectarian conflict at its worse - and history teaches us that such conflicts are never resolved by violence alone. it is a disintegrating state which may no longer exist in future years. so as lenin once said, what is to be done? partition? dictatorship? a combination of the two?
what political options are available to the US government?