Queensland State Election 09 (1 Viewer)

[Lentern]

Thanks for sharing your "insight" with us once again, Lentern.

Someone has to challenge your cock and bull logic. I defy you to tell me there isn't a huge parrallel between the political course of the two governments? Long term premier is re-elected twice with ease, steps down midway through his third term, hands over to a newer, less "political" figure who rides on their newness and a relatively weak opposition to an easy re-election before all the wheels start coming off the wagon. People forget it was only two years ago we elected Morris Iemma.

 

[withoutaface]

Watching for Mal Brough's next move.

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

Someone has to challenge your cock and bull logic.

Really? Oh well, let me know when that person turns up.

 

[Lentern]

Really? Oh well, let me know when that person turns up.

Oh very droll, did you pick that up from the west wing along with your understanding of politics?

 

[spiny norman]

Springborg has stepped down as leader of the LNP.


So, what went wrong with the opinion polls? They were remarkably consistent throughout the campaign.

Given it looks to me it's ended up with Labor 51 to LNP's 49, it's not that far off? 2% is reasonably accurate (or 1% from the exit polls).

Anyway, look at my prediction earlier in this thread. I'm pretty sure I won the tipping contest.

 

[katietheskatie]

fucking hell

 

[badquinton304]

Springborg has stepped down as leader of the LNP.


So, what went wrong with the opinion polls? They were remarkably consistent throughout the campaign.

Because near neck-and-neck poll favors incumbent.

 

[badquinton304]

Given it looks to me it's ended up with Labor 51 to LNP's 49, it's not that far off? 2% is reasonably accurate (or 1% from the exit polls).

Anyway, look at my prediction earlier in this thread. I'm pretty sure I won the tipping contest.

Yeah thats about right I think its 1.8 now.

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

"Anna Bligh intends to flex her new political muscle when she gets back to work.

She wants to handpick her own Ministry this week and sidestep traditional Labor factions - something that's likely to put a few noses out of joint."

Good. Fuck the factions.

 

[Lentern]

Because near neck-and-neck poll favors incumbent.

Ya, the theory pertains to incumbent mp's allready having built up a relationship with their electorate so in an oversimplified way of putting it a state swing of 4% might translate into an average swing of six percent in seats the LNP allready hold and only 2% in government seats. This table shows it pretty well, only three incumbent governments in our history have won the vote but lost the election. The inverted scenario, governments losing the vote but winning the election, happens much more.