Post-Trials ATAR Estimate please. (1 Viewer)

[ProdigyInspired]

School Rank: 420s (2015 was a VERY weak cohort), 338 (2014), 300 (2013)
Currently our school looks fairly competitive compared to last year so last year's indication is not as relevant.

The following marks only include internal assessments, including the trials. All trials are worth 30% except for the MathE's, which are 40% each.
All years that are within 2007-2015 that are unlisted have 0 B6.
Chemistry 4/8 [71%]

• 2013: 1 B6
• 2010: 1 B6
• 2008: 2 B6

English Advanced 7/28, (Still vague, will edit when I get it)[81%]

• 2015 -> '07: 0 B6

Business Studies 2-3/20+ [91%]

• 2014: 2 B6,
• 2013: 1 B6
• 2007: 2 B6

Math Extension 1 3/7 [70%]

• 2013: 5 B6,
• 2012: 1 B6,
• 2011: 2 B6
• 2010: 3 B6
• 2008: 2 B6
• 2007: 1 B6

Math Extension 2 3/4 [45%]

• 2015: 1 B6,
• 2014: 1 B6
• 2011: 2 B6
• 2010: 2 B6
• 2008: 2 B6

Thanks in advance. pls don roast ty

 

[BandSixFix]

93~

 

[fluffchuck]

89.50

 

[Green Yoda]

87

 

[sida1049]

Assuming the difficulty of your trial exams are standard (e.g. imported trials), I estimate around 97, particularly if you maintain your current set of raw marks or even better, improve!

My estimate may seem like an outlier compared to those of other's, but there are good reasons for this:

- I estimate quantitatively, not qualitatively. I don't simply look at your marks, ranks and school rank and give an intuitive estimate. I base my estimates using raw marks, ATAR calculators and a few reasonable assumptions (e.g. trials were of typical difficulty, scaling and difficulty of this year's HSC exams will not fluctuate significantly, and that your performance in your trials is a good predictor of your performance in the HSC [I heard from a prominent mathematics teacher that statistically students tend to score around what they get in their trials, and that a typically student can improve by no more than 10%]).

- For some intuitive reasons, people tend to give estimates that are significantly weighed by school ranks. In my opinion, while school ranks are good at statistically predicting the performance of entire student bodies, they are poor at predicting individual student performances. (Some understand of standard probability distributions will easily back this up). I tend to disagree with those estimates, and the numbers do as well.

- You may be getting 45% in MX2, but that is enough to bring your ATAR equivalence for that subject to 97. Students nearly getting 50% will hit an ATAR equivalence of 98.

- Chemistry is dragging you done. However, if you can secure 75% raw marks in the chemistry HSC exam, chemistry will scale you up.

I typically don't explain my rationale behind my estimates, but I feel as if the estimates you are getting are significantly lower than actuality.

Hope this helps, and best of luck! Keep improving and you'll do very well.

 

[ProdigyInspired]

~

Thanks, that's very reassuring.

English, Business Studies were both from CSSA.
Chemistry I'm not sure of, but I'm pretty sure it was imported, just with a changed cover.
The ME's were Independent, and respectively the top marks were only 51% and 73%, so I'm assuming the difficulty of the tests were fairly high.

It was interesting to see the estimates get dragged up compared to before, despite lower percentages and some lower ranks. Thanks everyone for their estimates.

 

[sida1049]

Thanks, that's very reassuring.

English, Business Studies were both from CSSA.
Chemistry I'm not sure of, but I'm pretty sure it was imported, just with a changed cover.
The ME's were Independent, and respectively the top marks were only 51% and 73%, so I'm assuming the difficulty of the tests were fairly high.

It was interesting to see the estimates get dragged up compared to before, despite lower percentages and some lower ranks. Thanks everyone for their estimates.

The HSC trial is generally a good simulation of the HSC, hence what you get for trials makes for a reasonable basis for what you may reasonably get in the HSC. Furthermore, since the trials are more difficult than pre-trials assessments, students' marks for pre-trials tend to inflate and distort the usefulness of using pre-trials marks and ranks.

Those reasons are precisely why I never bother estimating for students who only post up rankings; interpreting them is very subjective, and unlike marks, rankings have a directly reliance on the performance of other students in the grade (thus without useful information on the cohort, which I believe school ranks are poor substitutes of, estimates tend to misleading and unreliable).

But it goes without saying, that's my rationale at least hahah.

 

[Shaza-m8]

Please calculate atar
Biology-97%
Advanced English-80%
SOR2-96%
Music-90%
General Maths2-87%
All imported tests

 

[Christopher16]

95+

 

[danpowell]

90~