NSW Election - BOS Voting Intentions (2 Viewers)

[Nebuchanezzar]

Liberals dominated in Cronulla.

 

[Josie]

Wollongong:

Noreen Hay ALP 22994 76.4 -0.5
Colin Fowler LIB 7106 23.6 +0.5

Keira:

David Campbell ALP 21991 72.4 -1.1
David Moulds LIB 8398 27.6 +1.1

Remember we have a steel works. Blue collar town = Labor town.

Edit: For Serius' benefit. You should *know* this

I don't think I saw anything on Fowler at all, but then I don't watch commercial TV. Poor old David Moulds has been contesting this seat for years, and never getting more than like 30% of the vote. It's almost like he says "oh hey look, another 4 years, shit, I better go campaign again."

 

[S1M0]

I would assume that all the beach areas (cronulla, coogee, bondi, bronty,etc) would have liberals filling their seats.

Not sure though, might check up on that.

Good news is that Labour won!!

 

[ZabZu]

I would assume that all the beach areas (cronulla, coogee, bondi, bronty,etc) would have liberals filling their seats.

Not sure though, might check up on that.

Good news is that Labour won!!

Coogee and Maroubra are both Labor seats. However, basically all other beach side electorates in Sydney are now held by the Libs. Manly and Pittwater both changed hands from independents.

 

[Triangulum]

Coogee and Maroubra are both Labor seats. However, basically all other beach side electorates in Sydney are now held by the Libs. Manly and Pittwater both changed hands from independents.

Yeah, pretty much the more affluent beach seats (Vaucluse, Manly, Pittwater) are Liberal, while the more sort of surfie areas like Coogee and Maroubra tend towards Labor. Southern suburbs (Menai and Miranda, around the Cronulla and Kurnell areas) are also Labor - Debnam didn't make enough inroads on desal to win them. (I've never really understood how a desalination plant would adversely impact residents, anyway.)

It's horribly depressing that Fred Nile has apparently regained his LC seat.

 

[poloktim]

It's horribly depressing that Fred Nile has apparently regained his LC seat.

QFT.

But oh well, the people have spoken.

 

[Collin]

My electorate is Pittwater - former seat of John Brogden. Looks like the Liberals has regained it from the independent Alex McTaggart.

 

[Sparcod]

The safest Labor seat (according to last night's news) happens to be Lakemba (Morris Iemma). The safest Liberals seat is Barry O'Farrell's Ku-Ring-Gai.

In this election, I was a Labor supporter

Iemma has won. This means that the 5-year old tradition of Labor running every State Government still continues.....I don't like John Howard's chances.

 

[frog12986]

Well, at least we know nothing will change dramatically over the next four years.

I think this does work rather favourably for Howard. Despite aslight shift in support in Sydney's far west, Australian voters will be very reluctant to give the ALP power of the entire nation. The prospect of an ALP autocracy is quite daunting..

 

[Triangulum]

The prospect of an ALP autocracy is quite daunting..

Why?

 

[frog12986]

Why?

The prospect of total autonomy of either of the major parties would be quite daunting. There would be no check or balance of any form, and would greatly reduce the ability of the Opposition party to hold the governing party to account.

In a political sense, the ALP still has an affinity with reckless expenditure federally, which poses great risk for stability across the naton. Infrastructure investment and the like are of course necesary, however the fact that the future fund has been cited for further use is worrying. Any commercial venture (such as broadband) cannot make an absolute assumption of positive dividends, and when the resources used to fund such ventures are intended to meet particular liabilities, it places an immense risk in the hands of the government. At the end of the day, risk is a central issue.

Now it is not the broadband suggestion in it's own right that is the issue, rather that the ALP has not progressed away from this 'spend at all costs' approach to budgetary management which has resulted in the degradation of Australia's economic position during both times of ALP Federal government in the past 50 years.

Australia is currently dependent upon stability, and risky expenditure is the greatest threat to the economy's resilience. Volatility is something the Australian economy can ill afford.

 

[wheredanton]

The prospect of total autonomy of either of the major parties would be quite daunting. There would be no check or balance of any form, and would greatly reduce the ability of the Opposition party to hold the governing party to account.

If the Liberals had every state I don't think you would be flapping your arms around deploring the state of our democracy.

However I think it will be an effective argument that would probably see the Libs home at the end of the year.

In a political sense, the ALP still has an affinity with reckless expenditure federally, which poses great risk for stability across the naton.

In order to differentiate itself from the sitting government that has the power of encumbancy it has to do something outlandish or present something big and bold, otherwise it would be accused of just simply being anti anything the government says.

 

[mr_brightside]

I was going to throw my vote away to the Green's but then changed my mind at the last second and voted liberal for Anthony Robert's. eh.

 

[frog12986]

If the Liberals had every state I don't think you would be .

I actually don't think it would be good regardless of the party, much like the electorate. Hence why it has only happened once, for a brief period of 6 months many moons ago..

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

does anyone find frog's constant ramblings to be a little boring? it's the same crap every time.

I think this does work rather favourably for Howard. Despite aslight shift in support in Sydney's far west, Australian voters will be very reluctant to give the ALP power of the entire nation.

Hhaha, leave it to you to somehow read these results as a positive for Howard and the coalition. THE ALP WON IN THE FACE OF COMPLETELY SHITTY SERVICES, A BORDERLINE RECESSION, AND A SHODDY CAMPAIGN. Despite that, the electorate has realised and voted on industrial relations, and I suspect the same will occur at the federal election. People don't trust the coalition as they used to, and people are more than a little pissed off about IR, and service cuts.

 

[frog12986]

Does anyone find Nebs comments typically ignorant and uneducated? Similar to that of most of our states wonderful teachers..

Hhaha, leave it to you to somehow read these results as a positive for Howard and the coalition. THE ALP WON IN THE FACE OF COMPLETELY SHITTY SERVICES, A BORDERLINE RECESSION, AND A SHODDY CAMPAIGN. Despite that, the electorate has realised and voted on industrial relations, and I suspect the same will occur at the federal election. People don't trust the coalition as they used to, and people are more than a little pissed off about IR, and service cuts.

We'll wait and see won't we. Australians dont like the centralisation fo power, and Stephen Loosely made this point quite emphatically in relation to state success.

Weren't you the one saying things were not that bad in the state? That's a fast change of tune...

You can try and simplify the entire campaign down to IR but the fact remains there was a swing away from the ALP in close to every seat. Not as big as it should have been, but that is when the Peter Debnam factor comes into it. This election did serve to create a natural correction on the distortions of th 2003 election.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

I don't really care about a swing. If it were up to the ALP's performance at state then they would have lost, with a massive swing against them! You cannot bend the results to suit your opinion, it's just not possible. IR was the central issue at this election. If that wasn't the case, we would have seen a much different result.

Does anyone find Nebs comments typically ignorant and uneducated? Similar to that of most of our states wonderful teachers..

Lol. Lemme guess, you also think that the HSC English course is pro-left too?

Weren't you the one saying things were not that bad in the state? That's a fast change of tune...

Oh my no. I voted [1] Greens as a protest against how shoddy services in the state were. Things could definately be better. So you know, research these things prior plz.

 

[frog12986]

I don't really care about a swing. If it were up to the ALP's performance at state then they would have lost, with a massive swing against them! You cannot bend the results to suit your opinion, it's just not possible. IR was the central issue at this election. If that wasn't the case, we would have seen a much different result.

How was IR the central issue? The ad was based on a fallacy, and merely twisted the truth of the matter. I would like to know if Mr Iemma is going to ensure the NSW awards remain and the private sector will be protected under the state system? If IR was as prevalent as you say, despite the STATE issues, there would have been little or no swing in many of the seats. It was always going to be more than difficult for the Coalition to make any inroads with the most marginal seat at 4.1%, however there are some healthy swings that negate the IR issue. The following highlight some healthy swings and inroads into substantial margins created in 2003, when the Opposition was even more inept:

Albury - 3.6%
Ballina - 4.3 %
Baulkham Hills - 5.9%
Blacktown - 2.6%
Blue Mountains - 3.7%
Burrinjuck - 5.1%
Cabramatta - 2.3%
Camden - 5.4%
Castle Hill - 8.1%
Cessnock - 6.9%
Clarence - 6.2%
Coffs Harbour - 5.4%Coogee - 6.2%
Cronulla - 9.2%
Davidson - 3.7%
East Hills - 3.8%
Epping - 10.5%
Fairfield - 5.7%
Gosford - 4.1%
Granville - 8.8%
Heathcote - 4.0%
Hornsby- 12.8%
Ku-ring-gai - 10.9%
Lane Cove - 10.1%
Lismore - 1.2%
Liverpool - 4.1%
Londonderry - 3.4%
Macquarie Fields - 12.2%
Manly - 4.3%
Maroubra - 7.2%
Mulgoa - 6.0%
Miranda - 8.3+%
Murray-Darling - 9.7%
North Shore - 7.7%
Orange - 5.5%
Oxley - 6.5%
Pittwater - 10.9%
Port Macquarie - 3.6%
Port Stephens - 7.1%
Riverstone - 3.4%
Rockdale - 5.4%
Ryde - 5.0%
South Coast - 5.8%
Smithfield - 9.9%
Swansea - 6.4%
The Entrance - 4.8%
Terrigal - 8.1%
Toongabbie - 2.5%
Tweed - 7.6%
Wakehurst - 4.5%
Wallsend - 4.4%
Willoughby - 5.1%
Wollondilly 1.8%
Wyong - 5.6%

The bold are the places where IR would be most 'felt' or relevant.

Even though you, along with the ALP state that IR was the 'central' issue, the statewide trend shown by the swings in each of those seats suggests otherwise. Other factors would have interplayed, and ultimately the margins were to great to make-up in one election.

Lol. Lemme guess, you also think that the HSC English course is pro-left too?

Teachers are the most protected, unaccoutable species in the entire public service. The very fact that a dyslexic person can obtain qualifications to TEACH other people reflects greatly on this system.

 

[Serius]

I was going to throw my vote away to the Green's but then changed my mind at the last second and voted liberal for Anthony Robert's. eh.

you cant really throw a vote away in australian elections because of the preferences system.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

Teachers are the most protected, unaccoutable species in the entire public service. The very fact that a dyslexic person can obtain qualifications to TEACH other people reflects greatly on this system.

Lol. Just shuttup, you fool.

As for your statistics, I don't give a shit. For fucks sake, I've already said that there was a MOUNTAIN of things working AGAINST the ALP at this election and they still won! What the fuck are you trying to prove? The fact is that PEOPLE VOTED BASED ON IR. How the hell else can you explain it? At the very most, I can see personality played a big part, and if that's the case then Howard is in for a whole heap of trouble at the federal election. I expect you to pull some bullshit excuse out to say that it won't have any effect, or using the horribly trite excuse of incumbency to say that none of it will matter at the federal election. Oh, we'll see about that.

I also love the fact that the coalition in recent hours has been throwing the reason of mudslinging as the dreadfully immoral, indecent means that the ALP won the election. Do they not recall their tactics at the 2004 federal election? Pot calling the kettle black?