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Maxine McKew for Bennelong (2 Viewers)

jb_nc

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bshoc said:
If a left wing ABC presenter thinks she's got a chance in my seat, she's dreaming, I wasn't sure I'd be voting Howard before Labor announced their candidate, now I'm sure of it.

Bennelong never has been and never will be a Labor seat.
Agreed mate. If it turns into a Labor seat I'd be ashamed to live here. Johnny does still care for Bennelong but McKew is a blow in along the lines of Garret and every other Labor celebrity candidate. I hopes she loses and is made to move on to a "safe" Labor seat in South-West Sydney. She can enjoy the high life there while representing their people.

She was "campaigning" with John Watkins yesterday, why anyone would want to be seen with that dickhead is beyond me.
 
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wheredanton

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frog12986 said:
Hmm..

A point that seems to be forgotten, is that whilst the seat is 'marginal', it is such with a consistent primary vote to JH of 49% (53% in 2001). The ALP at the past two elections achieved primary votes of 30% (2001) and 28% (2004). Unless the ALP obtain a huge swing in the primary vote, it is all but a distant dream. Poll Bludger makes an extremely valid point, in saying that Rudd's 'arrogance' is starting to show through, particularly with this decision.

As Tony Abbott said, "Bennelong residents would see Ms McKew as "Madam Blow-In", while Mr Howard was in his electorate office almost every Friday seeing constituents"

As the NSW shapes up as a sure victory for the ALP, the challenge for the Federal ALP becomes the little bit harder. If a sub-standard government, as exists in NSW, can obtain a comfortable election win, it would take something extremely big to sway the voters to not only vote against the status quo federally, but also to consign themselves to wall to wall ALP governments across Australia.
I don't think she will win. But if she does it is very likely that the ALP would come very close to government.
But in reality it is a huge ask for Rudd to win the election. The economy is good, unemployment is low people are not feeling a heavy pinch and the mood for change of government mild, perhaps fueled by the simple fact that Howard has been in power for a long time. People naturally feel like a change, but more than a 'feeling' is needed.

The opinion polls are a weak indicator. There is a substantial portion of apathetic/uninterested in politics/ undecided voters, most of these people will vote with the status quo as they will probably do so in NSW election.

frog12986 said:
Poll Bludger makes an extremely valid point, in saying that Rudd's 'arrogance' is starting to show through, particularly with this decision.
I think John Howard takes the cake for veiled arrogance. His anger, in recent times, at certain questions isn't as well hidden as it has been in the past. He simply looks pissed off when asked a difficult question much like Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, but not to the same extent. He is most indignant in the face of tough questioning. Sometimes he simply chooses not to answer questions.
 
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banco55

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jb_nc said:
Agreed mate. If it turns into a Labor seat I'd be ashamed to live here. Johnny does still care for Bennelong but McKew is a blow in along the lines of Garret and every other Labor celebrity candidate. I hopes she loses and is made to move on to a "safe" Labor seat in South-West Sydney. She can enjoy the high life there while representing their people.

She was "campaigning" with John Watkins yesterday, why anyone would want to be seen with that dickhead is beyond me.
She lives in Mosman and hobnobs with the left wing intelligentsia. I don't think she'd go down well in Western sydney.
 

frog12986

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wheredanton said:
I think John Howard takes the cake for veiled arrogance. His anger, in recent times, at certain questions isn't as well hidden as it has been in the past. He simply looks pissed off when asked a difficult question much like Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, but not to the same extent. He is most indignant in the face of tough questioning. Sometimes he simply chooses not to answer questions.

The big difference however, is that he has been Prime Minister for 11 years...
 

wheredanton

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frog12986 said:
The big difference however, is that he has been Prime Minister for 11 years...
Are you suggested that because he has been PM for 11 years he is entitled to be somewhat terse with interviewers who dare ask him anything other than gift questions?
 

frog12986

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wheredanton said:
Are you suggested that because he has been PM for 11 years he is entitled to be somewhat terse with interviewers who dare ask him anything other than gift questions?
Not at all, but it would take someone of abnormal ability to be totally devoid of arrogance after being in power for such an extended period of time. My point was that as Rudd displays such arrogance as an opposition leader, one could only imagine his prime ministerial approach.

In contrast to your view, I believe that whilst conditions are stable and fairly prosperous, there will be a change of government at the end of the year. Howard will not lose his seat, but QLD, TAS and SA will turn the election into the ALP's favour.
 

wheredanton

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frog12986 said:
Not at all, but it would take someone of abnormal ability to be totally devoid of arrogance after being in power for such an extended period of time. My point was that as Rudd displays such arrogance as an opposition leader, one could only imagine his prime ministerial approach.
That's a fair point. Keating was pretty much unbearable to most people at the end.

What aspects of his ALP leadership has made him arrogant? I mean it's hard to cut through with mainstream media. The TODAY show news had more on some footballer who punched some guy than on politics.

In contrast to your view, I believe that whilst conditions are stable and fairly prosperous, there will be a change of government at the end of the year. Howard will not lose his seat, but QLD, TAS and SA will turn the election into the ALP's favour.
Really? I'd bet on a safe Liberal win. History says a stable economy will see the Liberals returned, perhaps loosing a couple of seats.
 

Nebuchanezzar

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jb_nc said:
I hopes she loses and is made to move on to a "safe" Labor seat in South-West Sydney. She can enjoy the high life there while representing their people.
You're a douchebag.
 

Not-That-Bright

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I don't think she'll win (nor do I think she can even hope to win). A fairly easy liberal victory in 08 with john howard as leader, shortly after he will retire and there'll be a bi-election in bennelong which she'll probably cruise into if she can translate her current howard resentment votes into actual support for her.
 

frog12986

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wheredanton said:
Really? I'd bet on a safe Liberal win. History says a stable economy will see the Liberals returned, perhaps loosing a couple of seats.
Maybe so, and although nothing has gone terribly wrong, the new face of Rudd, combined with the IR laws will turn many 'battlers' into a Labor vote. Obviously the campaign hasn't even begun yet, and the polls reflect a curiosity with the Opposition Leader, however once the IR campaign gains momentum it will be difficult for the Coalition to sweep it aside. Many are even saying it's affecting the voting intentions of those in the NSW Electon..
 

Iron

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It's likely that Maxine will narrowly lose this contest, but it doesnt matter. She'll at least inherit it next election (Howard cant possibly hang around for 2010-11) and get lots of party points for guts.

She's so hot.
 

bshoc

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jb_nc said:
Agreed mate. If it turns into a Labor seat I'd be ashamed to live here. Johnny does still care for Bennelong but McKew is a blow in along the lines of Garret and every other Labor celebrity candidate. I hopes she loses and is made to move on to a "safe" Labor seat in South-West Sydney. She can enjoy the high life there while representing their people.

She was "campaigning" with John Watkins yesterday, why anyone would want to be seen with that dickhead is beyond me.
Worst part is that while I think the swing against Watkins will be one of the largest in NSW come election time, it is not likely to unseat him.

Hehe I got one of those "Watkins for Ryde" helium baloons on the weekend, wrote "anyone but" on the top of it, it will be proudly displayed in my room till election time.
 

bshoc

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banco55 said:
She lives in Mosman and hobnobs with the left wing intelligentsia. I don't think she'd go down well in Western sydney.
Well about the western third of Bennelong could be classed as kind of Western Sydney working class, the Eastern third as affluent North Shore type, and the middle third somewhere between the two.

The Eastern third always votes majority liberal, and if you say she wont go down well with western Sydney types, I'm not sure that leaves her much territory.
 

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John Howard needs to ring up Murdoch and get him to fire up the right wing attack machine, hopefully she'll be gone before the election.
 

ur_inner_child

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McKew unfazed by death threats
March 3, 2007 - 1:50PM


Labor's star recruit Maxine McKew has vowed to continue her federal election campaign despite receiving death threats.

Authorities are also investigating Thursday night's discovery of men holding torches underneath Ms McKew's car parked in the driveway of her Sydney North Shore home.

The incident followed a number of death threats against the former ABC presenter since she announced she would take on Prime Minister John Howard in his seat of Bennelong.

Former intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie, who was the Greens candidate for the same seat in 2004, revealed today he too had been threatened during the last federal election campaign.

Ms McKew told reporters in Sydney today how her neighbour had given a detailed account to police after spotting the suspicious men around her car.

She said the neighbour told her he saw a strange car parked in a nearby laneway and two men, one underneath her car shining a torch into the undercarriage, the other looking inside.

A full search of the car by the bomb squad and sniffer dogs had turned up nothing, she said.

Ms McKew admitted the recent events had unsettled her but said she would be not deterred from her campaign to unseat Mr Howard.

"I've just got to take it in my stride," Ms McKew said. "You don't necessarily anticipate something like this but it hasn't thrown me."

Authorities were already aware of death threats made about the Labor candidate to the national terrorism hotline, she said.

While she now knew the details of those threats, Ms McKew declined to reveal their nature as they were "confidential".

Mr Wilkie told AAP he was threatened in a series of detailed letters in 2004 outlining what would be done to him if he continued his political campaign.

"I received a number of death threats, some so alarming I also had to go to police as Maxine McKew seems to have done," Mr Wilkie said. "It looks and sounds like the exact thing I faced."

Mr Wilkie said the threatening letters stopped after the election, in which he secured a small swing against Mr Howard, but abusive phone calls continued for many months until he changed his telephone number.

Mr Wilkie said he didn't go public about the threats at the time for fear of appearing to imply that sections of Mr Howard's support had resorted to dirty tricks in the election.
SMH Full Article
 

ur_inner_child

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Goodness.

I hadn't realised (until I started working for the AEC) that Bennelong now extended so far as into Carlingford.

Certainly could be interesting.
 

ur_inner_child

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Oh I'm sure it is!

Definitely caught me by surprise to share suburbs with the Parramatta electorate.

Yet I still put my money on Howard keeping it.
 

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