Labor Leadership Spill 2012 (4 Viewers)

[Lentern]

He wants Gillard to hold a secret ballot in which she absolutely should (but likely won't) hold.

Labor has always had secret ballots, I think he's just saying call off the intimidation. (Recall what happened to Julia Irwin in 2010 after she publicly endorsed Rudd)

 

[soloooooo]

Rudd spills on Gillard & Swan re carbon tax shelving lol.

 

[Azure]

Yeah my mistake sorry guys. I was under the impression it wasn't secret, which I found particularly odd.

Interesting to note that he's also mentioned he does not plan to re-contest if he's sent to the back bench.

 

[Lentern]

Yeah my mistake sorry guys. I was under the impression it wasn't secret, which I found particularly odd.

Interesting to note that he's also mentioned he does not plan to re-contest if he's sent to the back bench.

Yeeeeaaaaaaah but those things can be waived by context.

 

[soloooooo]

Is there a youtube video of his speech yet?

 

[Rafy]

Nielsen poll will be out tonight.

 

[Trebla]

As much as I would like Rudd to win, there is no way that's gonna happen (in this ballot anyway). Given the current hung parliament situation, the majority of independents have indicated that they will break off deals with Labor if Rudd wins. Hence, even if Rudd was to miraculously succeed in the ballot, it is likely that Labor will risk losing government majority as the independents will withdraw their support and move to the Liberal side to form a majority leading to an Abbott government. If this majority does not work out, it would potentially force an early election. This outcome is the last thing Labor needs under shitty poll results.

If the independents decide to still back Labor then given his popularity with the public, then it will be a brighter outlook but this situation is highly unlikely.

Consequently, the least risky outcome for the Labor party would be to back Gillard. That way at least they will still hold government until the next election in 2013 and hope to redeem their poor polling in a year's time (which seems unlikely at the moment).

In summary, either way Labor is screwed...

 

[Lentern]

As much as I would like Rudd to win, there is no way that's gonna happen (in this ballot anyway). Given the current hung parliament situation, the majority of independents have indicated that they will break off deals with Labor if Rudd wins. Hence, even if Rudd was to miraculously succeed in the ballot, it is likely that Labor will risk losing government majority as the independents will withdraw their support and move to the Liberal side to form a majority leading to an Abbott government. If this majority does not work out, it would potentially force an early election. This outcome is the last thing Labor needs under shitty poll results.

If the independents decide to still back Labor then given his popularity with the public, then it will be a brighter outlook but this situation is highly unlikely.

Consequently, the least risky outcome for the Labor party would be to back Gillard. That way at least they will still hold government until the next election in 2013 and hope to redeem their poor polling in a year's time (which seems unlikely at the moment).

In summary, either way Labor is screwed...

Brown, Wilkie and Oakeshott have all said they'd rather work with Rudd than Abbott. Windsor hasn't confirmed a position either way.

 

[Azure]

Yeah but do the independents really want an election? Aside from the prospect of losing their seats, it is almost certain that their importance will be reduced if an election were held now.

 

[Azure]

No surprise that the Rudd presser was much more powerful than the Gillard one.

 

[katie tully]

They are fucked either way. Abbott 2012.

 

[katie tully]

*as long as he keeps his mouth shut for the entirety of the campaign

 

[soloooooo]

They are fucked either way. Abbott 2012.

The Socialist Alliance has a better chance of winning than Tony Abbott (specifically Abbott as leader, not the Liberal party. Liberal party with Turnbull etc is a different story).

 

[Lentern]

Yeah but do the independents really want an election? Aside from the prospect of losing their seats, it is almost certain that their importance will be reduced if an election were held now.

Agreed, Windsor in particular I think is just trying to get some leverage for negotiations if and when Rudd returns.

 

[katie tully]

lol no you are wrong

glorious abbott and there is nothing you can do about it

 

[Lentern]

No surprise that the Rudd presser was much more powerful than the Gillard one.

She seems to reverting back to the feisty, aggressive deputy leader Julia. Frankly I preferred the cold, aloof Prime Minister one. There is no gravitas in this press conference.

 

[katie tully]

the public is fed up with the alp
they won a lot of votes last time because swinging voters were scared off by abbott as he was the greater of two evils
and they only fucking won a minority govt hahahaha
now him and the stable libs are the lesser of two evils
swinging voters combined with traditional libs/nats voters
easy win and he doesnt even have to do anything (except not speak)

 

[Lentern]

the public is fed up with the alp
they won a lot of votes last time because swinging voters were scared off by abbott as he was the greater of two evils
and they only fucking won a minority govt hahahaha
now him and the stable libs are the lesser of two evils
swinging voters combined with traditional libs/nats voters
easy win and he doesnt even have to do anything (except not speak)

Please don't imply that you speak for the public.

 

[katie tully]

no i read the papers during lunch when im at subway
this is how i guage what the common man is feeling

change is in the air

 

[katie tully]

when/how did i imply i speak for the public

i didnt say i was fed up with the alp

or that the public and i was fed up

the public clearly are though this is what polls are for are you simple (yes)