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Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Cruse oil and the Political insability (1 Viewer)

writer'sblock

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One reason for the rise in oil prices is the political uncertainty over Iran and it’s ambition to produce atomic weapons. The danger isn’t the cut off of supplies from Iran –the 4th largest exporter-, but from the region – around 40% of the globally traded oil - since Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.
It has been reported by Iranian newspapers that Iran has ordered the army to dig 320000 graves near its borders, for “humanitarian purposes” since it may be planning to allocate them to enemy corpses.
If there is any hostility in the Gulf Iran will certainly exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
If the order to dig graves isn’t a clear sign to the imminent political instability who knows what is? Not just in the Middle East, the NYMEX might cause some political instability of its own in many corners of the globe.
 

writer'sblock

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Exphate said:
And the purpose of this thread is...?
Maybe to get people like you to think about the situation, and act by reducing your consuption of the commodity and thus prevent certain political stains?
Or maybe engage in discussion about the topic to provide pseudo-solutions. et cetera, et cetera.
Do we just do abosolutely nothing and nor even talk about the situation, raison d'etre nothing will happen otherwise.
 

sam04u

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Schroedinger said:
Digging graves? Do you have a reference/evidence for that?
It's a cancer. This shit propoganda.
 

Mumma

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sam04u said:
It's a cancer. This shit propoganda.
Right over here sir
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/30/content_8459225.htm
http://www.javno.com/en/world/clanak.php?id=160371

Referenced at the bottom of this story
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/29/us.iran/

Heres a funny one
"An Iranian commander has asked the Red Cross to give a complete list of enlisted soldiers who will be deployed to Iran in case of war. "
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=62688&sectionid=351020101
 

bigboyjames

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US will not be fighting just Iran if they attack. it is going to stir up the whole middle east. People in the middle east will unite under the banner of religion once again. Of course, US is much powerful compared to Iran especially when Israel is also an ally. Iran is a bigger threat to Israel than to US so you will be looking at more Israeli causalities. Also disrupting oil supply in the middle east is in Iran's capability and also China and Russia won't be silent this time since they have vast interests in Iran.
 

Mumma

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Might be right about china/russia but I don't think Saudi Arabia and the like will jump in to protect Iran.
 

bigboyjames

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Mumma said:
Might be right about china/russia but I don't think Saudi Arabia and the like will jump in to protect Iran.
ofcrouse the govt will not jump in. but the radical right wing religious theocrats will just issue a fatwa against the invasion and then we will see more Saudis crossing the border into iraq.

not only that, all the ARAB gulf countries cannot defend themselves (KSA,Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE etc) Iran likely will attack U.S. forces in these countries, and strike Saudi and Kuwaiti oil facilities.

shut the Strait of Hormuz = producing worldwide financial panic = severe fuel shortages = and $400-$500 per barrel oil = $6-7 a litre of petrol at BP
 
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sam04u

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Mumma said:
Right over here sir
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/30/content_8459225.htm
http://www.javno.com/en/world/clanak.php?id=160371

Referenced at the bottom of this story
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/29/us.iran/

Heres a funny one
"An Iranian commander has asked the Red Cross to give a complete list of enlisted soldiers who will be deployed to Iran in case of war. "
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=62688&sectionid=351020101
Are you a fucking nutcase?
Please don't answer that.

Do you think the United States of Fail and Aids, or Isfail would even bother with occupying forces on the ground? In a country with 100,000,000 citizens, where the majority of the base population are YOUNG ADULTS? There is no point in digging up graves.

If there is an attack on Iran it will be in the air. It'll be missiles, bombing strikes with jets, heavier embargoes, and battleship bombings.

Also more importantly it will be ENTIRELY unjustified. Iran has done nothing wrong, they've done nothing illegal, they've done nothing in contravention of international law, and yet they're still being threatened with attacks, despite not commiting any offences. Nobody has a right to threaten Iran. But if they do, if this war happens. God save us.
 

bigboyjames

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Exphate said:
Hmm. 3 sets of nukes flying through the sky.

Excellente.
a nuke attack on Iran, would also mean a massive retaliation attack on Israel, perhaps even lead to irreversible failure and collapse of the Israeli state. And Russia and China would be all involved too. It would be pretty bad.

And you can't just nuke a country. There is this whole problem with radiation...effect the whole middle east, through to Pakistan and India. are you stupid?
 

Mumma

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sam04u said:
Are you a fucking nutcase?
Please don't answer that.

Do you think the United States of Fail and Aids, or Isfail would even bother with occupying forces on the ground? In a country with 100,000,000 citizens, where the majority of the base population are YOUNG ADULTS? There is no point in digging up graves.

If there is an attack on Iran it will be in the air. It'll be missiles, bombing strikes with jets, heavier embargoes, and battleship bombings.

Also more importantly it will be ENTIRELY unjustified. Iran has done nothing wrong, they've done nothing illegal, they've done nothing in contravention of international law, and yet they're still being threatened with attacks, despite not commiting any offences. Nobody has a right to threaten Iran. But if they do, if this war happens. God save us.
What the fuck are you talking about? You were implying iran said no such thing, so there's the source. Fuck off. I don't give half a shit about 99% of what you just said.
 

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"If there is any hostility in the Gulf Iran will certainly exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz."

And that's when Ahmadinejad will no longer be in power.
 

bigboyjames

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Riet said:
"If there is any hostility in the Gulf Iran will certainly exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz."

And that's when Ahmadinejad will no longer be in power.
Another dumb comment on BOS
 

Riet

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bigboyjames said:
Another dumb comment on BOS
Are you shitting me? You think America would let Iran cut off the entire Gulfs oil exports?
 

F2001

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writer'sblock said:
Exphate said:
And the purpose of this thread is...?
Maybe to get people like you to think about the situation, and act by reducing your consuption of the commodity and thus prevent certain political stains?
Or maybe engage in discussion about the topic to provide pseudo-solutions. et cetera, et cetera.
Do we just do abosolutely nothing and nor even talk about the situation, raison d'etre nothing will happen otherwise.
HSC in 2009.

Gordon RAmsey on TV.

Shut the fuck up you fucking twat and fucking go study, you're too fucking dumb right now.
 

writer'sblock

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If you must know the source, and it's preverance: the statement of the graves was taken from The Economist (July 5th - 11th 2008, page 57, 'Iran's confrontation with the West: Dangerous Games) (It was published online on the 3rd July 2008)

The entire article was:

AS IS well known, one reason for the giddying rise in oil prices is the fear of a messy conflict over Iran because of its suspected ambition to build atomic bombs. The danger is not simply of a cut-off in supplies from Iran, the world’s fourth-largest exporter, but of a prolonged threat to the wider Gulf region, which accounts for 40% of oil traded on the world’s markets. Yet if everyone believed the warmongering noises coming from both Iran and its critics, the price of oil would be higher still.
Iranian newspapers, for instance, have reported plans by the army to dig some 320,000 graves near its borders, supposedly a humanitarian move to speed the disposal of enemy corpses and so “reduce the pain and hardship of the families of the soldiers who will be killed in any possible invasion of our country.” One commander advises that any invaders should equip themselves with artificial legs, because they will not be walking home.

In a more sober vein, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, General Muhammad Ali Jafari, told interviewers that the danger of an American attack had risen in the waning months of the Bush administration, because of the “Republican hopelessness regarding the victory of their candidate.” Iran’s response to aggression would be swift and decisive, said Mr Jafari, and could include strikes against Israel, strikes at countries hosting American bases in the Gulf, and exerting control over the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region’s oil flows to market. “Certainly if there is fighting the scope will be extended to oil, meaning its price will increase drastically,” he said.
Mr Jafari’s remarks came in response to a string of what were seen in Tehran as provocative developments. These have included reports of massive Israeli long-distance aerial manoeuvres and revelations of a boost in covert American funding to Iranian opposition groups. There were also statements attributed to senior Israelis and Americans suggesting that the window for military action could close within a year, because by then Iran might already have developed a bomb, or improved its air defences sufficiently to deter any attack.
Yet both the Israeli and American governments distanced themselves from these provocative statements. Asked about an unnamed Pentagon official who hinted at an imminent Israeli attack in a television interview, a State Department spokesman said that if such talk were credible, the source should not remain unnamed. In fact, American diplomats are talking about resuming direct talks with Iran over Iraq, and even of sending the first American diplomats to Tehran since the 1979-81 hostage crisis. It was also reported this week that the Pentagon stopped the air force from deploying its newest fighter to the Gulf, the F22, for fear of causing “strategic dislocation” with Iran.
Amid the drums of war Iran, too, has been sounding a quieter leitmotif of compromise. On numerous occasions, senior regime figures have chastised the country’s feisty populist president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for stirring up needless trouble with his bellicose rhetoric. And in contrast to how previous international overtures were met in Iran, the most recent offer of a deal over the nuclear issue, presented last month by European diplomats, has prompted widespread public discussion and even positive official noises.
Ali Velayati, who was foreign minister from 1981-97, and remains a top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly declared that Iran should accept the proposal, which calls for an initial six-week period of preliminary talks, during which Iran would forego any expansion of its enrichment programme in exchange for a freeze on new sanctions. The head of Iran’s atomic energy agency has also weighed in, according to Iranian news sites, apparently telling the Iranian parliament’s energy committee that the decision has already been taken to start the talks. It remains unclear, however, whether Iran would follow this with a full suspension of enrichment, which remains the condition set by America, Britain, France, Russia and China, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany for letting Iran off the sanctions hook.
Some naysayers believe this may simply be another Iranian stalling tactic, while others say it shows that the escalation of tensions, and the recent beefing up of sanctions brought by a European Union move to freeze dealings with Iran’s biggest bank, is causing Iranian officials to blink. Iranian analysts prefer the view that their leaders, reckoning that dangers may ease following America’s presidential election, simply wish to keep things calm until November.
 
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inasero

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bigboyjames said:
ofcrouse the govt will not jump in. but the radical right wing religious theocrats will just issue a fatwa against the invasion and then we will see more Saudis crossing the border into iraq.

not only that, all the ARAB gulf countries cannot defend themselves (KSA,Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE etc) Iran likely will attack U.S. forces in these countries, and strike Saudi and Kuwaiti oil facilities.

shut the Strait of Hormuz = producing worldwide financial panic = severe fuel shortages = and $400-$500 per barrel oil = $6-7 a litre of petrol at BP
I doubt it'd be low as $6-7
 

sam04u

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Mumma said:
What the fuck are you talking about?
I'm implying if I saw footage of Iranians digging up graves, I would not believe it's for the purpose of enemy soldiers. Because anyone with an ounce of intelligence knows an occupation force (ground forces) could not be deployed in Iran.

An attack on Iran would be from the air and sea not from the ground.
 

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