Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level
This may or may not be completely wrong and/or based on a misinterpretation of the question
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Pr(John picks the right day) =
Pr(John picks the first day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the second day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the third day, and it is the hottest the third day) +
Pr(John picks the fourth day, and it is the hottest the fourth day)
= 1/4*1/4 + 1/4*1/2 + 1/4*3/4 + 1/4 * 1 = 5/8
At the start of the first day, to him, every day is equally possible for it to be the hottest day, so the probability he picks it is 1/4, and the probability the first is the hottest is 1/4 (non-epistemic)
At the start of the second day, depending on how the first day went, it might be rational for John to not go the second day at all (i.e. if T2 < T1)
Given that John does pick the second day, the probability that it is the hottest is 1/2. This is because:
There are 24 different orderings of temperature (which I will denote by the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, the lower the number the lower the temperature)
(e.g. if the order is: 1, 4, 3, 2, it means that 2nd day is hottest followed by day 3, then day 4 then day 1)
There are 24 = 4! orderings, 12 of these orderings are such that 2nd day is greater than 1, and of these 6 of them are such that 2nd day = 4
Thus 6/12 = 1/2
Similarly for the 3rd day, of the 24 orderings, there are 8 orderings so that the 3rd is the hottest out of the first 3 days
Of these 8, there are 6 that are such that 3rd day is indeed the hottest day,
Thus Pr(3rd is hottest) given John picks 3rd day is 6/8 = 3/4
Similarly for day 4 it is 1
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