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Global Financial Crisis (2 Viewers)

blue_chameleon

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mserica said:
indeed it does - this crisis is going to last a while!!

right now i wish i was not in the investment banking sector!! Ive already said good bye to my bonus, now lets see how long i can hold on to my role for!!!!
What exactly is everyone basing their doom and gloom predictions on?

Apart from the obvious "recession" talk of Japan, UK, America etc? Anybody?
 

boris

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Yeah it isnt just "recession talk" anymore dude, Japan, Germany, Uk etc are actually in recession.
 

blue_chameleon

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boris said:
Yeah it isnt just "recession talk" anymore dude, Japan, Germany, Uk etc are actually in recession.
I've read the news, I know this. But it still doesn't change my question.
 

boris

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So, you're asking what they are basing their predictions off?

edit: who is they?
 

Trefoil

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boris said:
Yeah it isnt just "recession talk" anymore dude, Japan, Germany, Uk etc are actually in recession.
So what? Australia isn't in recession and is still posting strong growth, relatively speaking.

So why on earth are Australians freaking out?
 

blue_chameleon

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The Australian said:
A LEADING Reserve Bank official says the national economy should be cushioned from the global economic crisis even though domestic growth is forecast to fall in 2009.
RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey said the central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 200 basis points since September, the Federal Government's $10.4 billion stimulus package and a lower Australian dollar would help soften the impact of the crisis.
This is what I was looking for.

Westpac are forecasting negative growth over the first 2 quarters of 2009, here, which is technically a recession. Although, the RBA have said that even with this in mind, the economy will still continue to push along.

I'm with Malcom on this.

Source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24675373-36418,00.html
 
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boris

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Trefoil said:
So what? Australia isn't in recession and is still posting strong growth, relatively speaking.

So why on earth are Australians freaking out?
I thought he was thinking more along the lines of globally. Yeah we aren't in recession and it appears unlikely that we will slip into recession. But our economy is affected by the world market, so if lots of more powerful economys fall into recession it will hurt our economy even more?
 

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POPE said:
At the end of the Sermon on the Mount the Lord speaks to us about the two possible foundations for building the house of one's life: sand and rock. The one who builds on sand builds only on visible and tangible things, on success, on career, on money. Apparently these are the true realities. But all this one day will pass away. We can see this now with the fall of large banks: this money disappears, it is nothing. And thus all things, which seem to be the true realities we can count on, are only realities of a secondary order. The one who builds his life on these realities, on matter, on success, on appearances, builds upon sand. Only the Word of God is the foundation of all reality, it is as stable as the heavens and more than the heavens, it is reality. Therefore, we must change our concept of realism. The realist is the one who recognizes the Word of God, in this apparently weak reality, as the foundation of all things. Realist is the one who builds his life on this foundation, which is permanent.
.
 

stazi

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im guessing we'll breach the 2999 mark soon on the ASX :(
 

blue_chameleon

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That's 50% the ASX has gone back over the last 12 month period. Fun fun funnnnnnn.
 

Trefoil

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Aw shit, commodities on the Dow Jones just took a massive fall. Not good for Aus.

"If you look at the history of the ASX index you will see that in 1929 the index fell 40%. In 2008 it has now fallen 50%, just check for yourself at the ASX site."

Oh snap. 1929 was the Great Depression. Of course, we're in far better circumstances than 1929.
 
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Trefoil

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Trefoil

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zimmerman8k said:
Not really. Watch the price spike again as soon as the global economy starts to pick up.

Even at $50 a barrel its still significantly more expensive in real terms than it was throughout the 90's and before the 2003-2008 bull market.
Yeah, you entirely miss the point. It doesn't matter how cheap oil was decades before, it matters that up until now, Iran and (and to some extent Russia) have for years come to bank on oil above a certain price for their economy to run. The speed of this drop (like 70% lost in 4 months) simply could not be accounted for in their budgets. For Iran, the IMF calculates that value to be something like $90. Oil is $50 a barrel. Remember Iran has massive unemployment and inflation problems (30% I believe).

It wouldn't be hurting Russia so bad except Russia, unlike Iran, is extremely exposed to the financial crisis - it's arguably been hit worse than America by this.

Even fairly stable Saudi Arabia needs at least $50 a barrel to get by.

The important factor here is that this oil drop is projected to average about $60 to $70 over 2009 and possibly 2010. That completely erodes any chance of a fast recovery for Iran.
 
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Trefoil

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zimmerman8k said:
An economic crisis could make Iran more desperate and militant.
In the wake of their coming election, I highly doubt that. They are a theocracy, but the people do have an effective sort of power. And those people right now are pissed off about the economy, not Israel (as Americans are pissed off about the economy, not terrorism). There's no scapegoat for them to use.

Your premise also contradicts the entire concept of economic sanctions and incentives; it's about making it more appealing for Iran to trade with us than to develop nuclear weapons. That pretty much dictates that by the time they have that level of desperation, then by default it's more beneficial for them to accept trade than start war.

It's not like a drop in the oil price suddenly eliminates them as a security threat.
Come on, did you even read what I linked to? It provides clear new avenues for negotiating with them that have a higher chance of success for both sides and a lower chance of war. That does make them less of a security threat.

Also the historic price does matter. American cities have been built on the assumption of cheap oil. Higher prices increase the cost of automobile and truck transportation which in many part of America have little or no viable substitute.
We're talking about negotiating with Iran. Not what American consumers think of petrol prices...
 

JaredR

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The point is that no one in their right mind could blame Rudd or the Labor Party for the global financial crisis, so it provides a wonderful alibi, a shield that protects Labor from getting the blame for unpleasantness in the economy.

So why not use the GFC shield to protect the Government from getting the blame for the budget's imminent descent into deficit? Why not say the GFC did it to us?

Well, no doubt when the time comes Rudd & Co will. Until then, however, the Government is paralysed by its inferiority complex - its belief that everyone thinks Labor is a hopeless economic manager.

What Wayne Swan doesn't seem to have realised is that, with all his inept dodging around the deficit-word, he's displaying Labor's inferiority complex for all to see.

An old hand advised me years ago that, when you appear on television, it doesn't matter much what you say because it won't be remembered. The punters are always too busy trying to judge from your body language whether you're lying.

Swan looks like he's a man with a guilty conscience who's trying to hide something. It's little wonder the press gallery keeps pressing him on the topic.

Rudd boasts of his Government's "decisive" response to the crisis, but what we're getting on the deficit question is timidity. This is a government frightened by the populist nonsense being peddled by an unscrupulous Opposition.

The stupidest part of it is, Swan is doing all he can to ensure that, when the inevitable happens, the Opposition, the media and the punters will see it as a failure of policy. The other thing I hope you've noticed is the way Rudd & Co are using the GFC to rewrite economic history.

The story they'd like us to remember is that everything in the economy was travelling fine until the wicked world threw the GFC at us and stuffed everything.

That's not quite the way it was. Before the global crisis got serious the economy was perilously close to full capacity, the underlying inflation rate had hit 4.7 per cent and the official interest rate had been jacked up to 7.25 per cent, its highest in 13 years.

The economy had been slowing sharply since the beginning of this year and everyone knew a significant rise in unemployment was on the way. All that was the story before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September, when the global financial system started to rock on its foundations and scare the pants off people.

You'd never know that from what you hear now, however. The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook document, for instance, gives the GFC all the blame for the downward revisions to its forecasts for growth and employment.

It also blames all of the deterioration in the forecast budget balance on the GFC. In explaining the expected collapse in capital gains tax collections it notes that, between budget time and late October, the share market fell by 1500 points.

But my rough figuring suggests that about a third of that decline had occurred before the collapse of Lehman Bros.

That figure of a third isn't a bad one to illustrate my point. Perhaps as much as a third of the deterioration in growth and employment we're about to experience can be attributed to essentially domestic causes: the policy-induced slowdown brought about to reduce inflation pressure in a near-fully employed economy.

But now the Government's spin is directed towards obliterating those domestic factors from our memory.

Why? Because when the GFC gets the blame there can be no argument: it's not the Rudd Government's fault.

When, however, you acknowledge the purely domestic component of the problem - including our high level of household indebtedness - you get into a much more contentious argument about whether this Government or the last one should be blamed.

So keep an eye out: the GFC is being used as the scapegoat to cover a multitude of unrelated sins. Already it's been used to justify the motor vehicle industry's $6.2 billion handout, even though the Government's determination to prop up ailing manufacturers has been evident since before the election.

And even Nathan Rees and his Treasurer have had the effrontery to blame the GFC for a mini-budget necessitated by their backroom union bosses' refusal to permit the privatisation of the power stations.
Why? Because when the GFC gets the blame there can be no argument: it's not the Rudd Government's fault.

When, however, you acknowledge the purely domestic component of the problem - including our high level of household indebtedness - you get into a much more contentious argument about whether this Government or the last one should be blamed.

So keep an eye out: the GFC is being used as the scapegoat to cover a multitude of unrelated sins. Already it's been used to justify the motor vehicle industry's $6.2 billion handout, even though the Government's determination to prop up ailing manufacturers has been evident since before the election.

And even Nathan Rees and his Treasurer have had the effrontery to blame the GFC for a mini-budget necessitated by their backroom union bosses' refusal to permit the privatisation of the power stations.
http://business.smh.com.au/business...e-rewriting-history-20081123-6ewa.html?page=2
 

Trefoil

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JaredR said:
Every government around the world is blaming everything on the financial crisis. It makes sense considering most people's grasp of the economy is rather more limited than the near-paranoid musings of journalists (he's severely overdoing the potential power of the inflation rise prior to the crisis, and he seems to be oblivious to the fact that the US economy started tanking at the start of this year, not just when Lehman brothers crashed).

Except Bush. He's blaming the financial crisis on 9/11.

But if you were going to post a big wad of text, you could have at least quoted the whole article, instead of just the bits you like.
 
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