Some Ron Paulitics:
What Could President Paul Actually Do?
Bryan Caplan
What would happen if Ron Paul actually became president? First, I'd have to write a $200 check to Walter Block. But what would happen next?
There are some major changes that Paul could make unilaterally. He really could recall U.S. troops from not only Iraq and Afghanistan, but all over the world. I believe he would really do so, and despite the radicalism of this change, I'm confident that these orders, however unpopular, would be obeyed. Perhaps there would be a 2% chance of a coup if he made the changes overnight, but that's about it.
Furthermore, there are a number of "executive order" policies that he could change with the stroke of a pen. If I understand the law correctly, the president could unilaterally end affirmative action in federal hiring (and the hiring of federal contractors). And he could probably stop federal prosecutions for the sale of medical marijuana.
So what else could President Paul do on his own? He certainly couldn't abolish the Federal Reserve or return to the gold standard on his own, so whatever you think about that plan, it's not going to happen. In fact, Paul could not abolish any law unless half of both houses of Congress went along with him. And since he is probably the most libertarian politician in either house, almost all of the laws Paul wants to abolish would survive his presidency.
What Paul could do is stop or dilute new laws, including the budget. If you want to abolish old laws, gridlock works against you; but if you want to stop new laws, gridlock works in your favor. No new law could pass unless 2/3 of both houses wanted it. Given Paul's extremism, his opponents would have to heavily moderate any new statist legislation to make it veto-proof. The same goes for the budget: Since Dr. No would probably veto any budget that Congress would pass, fiscal conservatives could and probably would hold out for substantial spending cuts. And this is on top of the massive peace dividend Paul's unilateral foreign policy changes would realize.
Bottom line: Even if, like Megan McArdle, you think that Paul is "utterly insane," anyone with moderate libertaran sympathies (and no desire to crusade against "Islamo-Fascism") would probably be pleased by the policy consequences of Paul's presidency. In fact, it would take a radical like Paul to get moderate libertarian change.
Gee, it's almost as if the Constitution had built-in checks and balances!
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/12/what_could_pres.html
Ron Paul will win by a landslide
Larry Fester
Analysis/Opinion-Republican presidential candidate and Texas Congressman, Ron Paul, can win the presidency. Contrary to the pundits and media propaganda, Ron Paul is best positioned to win the GOP nomination.
Ron Paul has more money than his opponents and is just starting to gain momentum. As a result of massive popular support Paul’s donor base is huge and donors are not close to reaching contribution limits. Paul’s opponents are going broke and their donors are maxed out. Ron Paul may raise 20 million this quarter and chances are he’ll raise more the next quarter.
To get an idea of how strong Paul’s support is consider this. Ron Paul received donations from over 123,000 people this quarter. If one out of 100 voters donate to a presidential candidate that means Paul has the support of over 12 million primary voters. My guess is that less than 1 out of 100 voters donate in a primary.
Of Paul’s opponents, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are broke and don’t have the funds to compete on Super Tuesday. Both candidates appear to be media creations in this election and don’t have that much popular support. If it weren’t for undeserved free media they wouldn’t be on the radar screens.
Giuliani was forced to go with his big state strategy because he ran the risk of getting creamed in early primaries. He appears to be a led balloon and runs the risk of losing some of those big states to Paul. Thompson just hasn’t taken off. There is a chance he could get revived in South Carolina but he may not make it that far.
Romney is self financing his campaign and can go the distance, but how much of his personal wealth is he willing to squander?
Recent commentaries and political talk have mentioned the possibility of a brokered convention. This is an early admission by pundits that Ron Paul can’t be stopped, and a hope that he won’t have 50% of the delegates allowing his opponents to broker a deal to deny him the nomination.
Paul is unique among GOP candidates because his support is national. He can compete in every state.
The primary calendar has been frontloaded which was deliberate to keep second tier candidates (candidates not bought and paid for) from having a shot at winning the nomination. It is doubtful that when planning the schedules anybody had a clue that Ron Paul would be one of the only candidate that could be competitive on February 5th
Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, Maine are all up for grabs prior to Super Tuesday which is on February 5th. Given the low expectations Paul only needs to win one of these to show that he can win prior to Super Tuesday.
The Iowa caucus on January 3rd will be a tough start for Paul. He hasn’t spent that much time in Iowa and may not have the organization that Romney does to win the caucus. Placing in the top five is all that is needed there. A third place would be huge.
Two days later on February 5th is the Wyoming Caucus. This state is a neighbor of Utah and Romney may have a strong organization here as well. Paul may do well here though.
January 8th in New Hampshire is where the campaign really starts for Ron Paul. He doesn’t need to win it but he probably will. Buchanan won this state in 1996 running on similar campaign themes with 27% of the vote. Paul’s support is much broader.
Paul’s odds look good for Michigan on January 15th. The state is a foreclosure war zone and Paul’s blaming of the Federal Reserve for creating a housing crash may resonate well.
January 19th Nevada and South Carolina are up for elections. Paul should win Nevada and has an outside shot at South Carolina.
On January 29th Florida is up. This is the state where Giuliani has circled his wagons. If he’s still in the race it will be an uphill battle for him especially if Paul has momentum generated by a couple victories. There is evidence of Paul support in Florida on the ground just by observing bumper stickers and yard signs on residences but Giuliani also has some visible support.
Of course, if Paul wins New Hampshire the momentum generated from that victory is likely to steam roll his campaign through all of the above mentioned states setting him up for the knock out punch on Super Tuesday.
If Ron Paul doesn’t have the nomination sewed up on Super Tuesday, Paul’s delegate rich home state of Texas will be the final nail in the coffin come March.
The point is it is already too late to stop Paul. He’s going to win the Republican nomination.
As a general election candidate Ron Paul will win a 50 state landslide against any Democratic nominee.
Ron Paul’s opposition to the war in Iraq, and defense of the Bill of Rights, and Civil Liberties, may actually dig deeply into the Democratic vote and overwhelmingly attract independents to his campaign.
His support for secure borders as an integral part of national defense is also a very popular issue that transcends parties.
If Ron Paul is the GOP nominee it won’t matter if Bloomberg or anybody else runs as a third party candidate. Once people go to Paul’s website and review his issues and record they either reject Paul’s ideas or they are sold. Paul will not lose any supporters to another candidate once they are in his camp.
Unlike media propaganda, the ideals of peace, freedom, and prosperity, are very mainstream. To the aging baby boomer population now on fixed incomes, Ron Paul’s challenging of the Federal Reserve’s ‘Inflation Tax’ is most welcomed. To the rest of America feeling the double whammy of an ‘Inflation Tax’ and progressive federal income taxes, Paul’s calls to end the income tax are a cause for celebration.
In fact, Paul’s calls for reforming the monetary system, the income tax, foreign policy, and protecting the Constitution, are a lot more mainstream than pre-emptive nuclear war, no borders, and a police state are.
Those media generated polls are as valuable as the media propaganda that pushed the nation to war in Iraq. People should have as much faith in polls as they do the Easter Bunny and computerized voting. Ron Paul is going to win by a landslide
http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=207908
