Two points on this:
First, Teleological design arguments usually include the laws themselves when assessing the probability of life existing anywhere in the universe. It asks the question "why are the laws themselves the way they are?". For example, why is the gravitational constant the value it is? If the universe did come from nothing and by nothing, then what governs that these laws are the way they are? This means it is not good enough to simply claim that simple laws reduce the improbability of the events occurring because you first have to address the improbability of the laws themselves.
Perhaps because it's the only way the laws can be. I think the teleological argument begs the question "who made these laws the way they are that somehow allows life?" which is a bit fallacious. I guess what I'm saying is that I think you're addressing this point arse-backwards, obsessing on the outcome (us) and its improbability rather than the fact that the laws are just that - laws, and
that's how they are. I really, really don't understand the obsession with chance - it's not like there was any room for variation in these laws, and one tweak would have made our existence impossible. They can't have been tweaked because they just
are, improbability or not.
I think my incomprehension with your obsession in teleology derives from the fact that I never gave order and purpose - that the
purpose of the universe was to give life to us, and that was so improbable that it required a guiding hand. There is no purpose. We're an accident, a very implausible one. Okay? Okay.
Secondly let's assume for the sake of argument that all the probabilities when taken on their own aren't that unbelievable. Even when doing this, it still doesn't show that the culmination of all those events are "not that unbelievable". For example consider the rolling of a die. Taken in its own, the probability of rolling a six is not that unbelievable but rolling a six, six times in a row is a 1 in 46656 chance. This means that even if you are able to show that events when taken on their own are not that improbable, you still have to show that the combination of all of them is not that improbable.
Why?
Again, this only works if you are presupposing a sort of naturalistic explanation. Flipping back to the poker parody, I could state:
"Personally, I don't get the obsession with the supposed "slight chance" of my getting 100 "royal flushes" in a row, because it clearly wasn't slight enough - I got it didn't I?". One could respond "yes, of course you got it, but I want to know how you got it based on the ridiculously high improbability of it happening by chance alone". The point is that chance alone does not seem to be a satisfactory answer. This is why mutiverse theories which have an eternal past have been put forward.
Yeah, its improbable, but governed by the laws of chance, it doesn't mean it could never happen. You don't need a guiding hand or outside influence to get 100 royal flushes in a row, however improbable.
If the above is how you see the god-of-gaps argument, I'm not sure why you have such a problem with it. Essentially from what you have posted I see someone saying "We're not sure how to explain how this happened with our current models. God is currently the best explanation that fits the data and based on this we're proposing that God exists". How is this sort of thing different from any hypothesis (for example proposing the existence of elementary particles such as the higgs boson)? I'm genuinely interested in how you separate these two.
But God is
never the best explanation because itself assumes something we don't know, can never know, and thus can never prove or understand the mechanism thereof. It's like saying "I don't know how the glass milk was spilt on the floor; I'm going to assume it was fairies rather than my dog and its big swooshy tail".
Re: elementary particles such as the Higgs - well, you're right, we don't know they exist. Mathematically we suspect that they do, but we don't know, and that's
why we're trying to find them. We don't just assume, move on, and hope for the best.
If I was to guess (and so point out if I am incorrect) I would say that you would claim that the only valid hypothesis are those which can be scientifically demonstrated or proven. If that is the case, what happens when we reach the limits of scientific testing? I'm thinking of early stages of the universe or other scenarios where our knowledge bottoms out. What are we supposed to believe today in the cases where science is unable to provide a satisfactory answer and a supernatural explanation fits the data? There seems to be a point at which you're discounting supernatural explanations just on principle.
That assumes there ever will be a point. Taking your example, even now, with our primitive technology, we can see almost all the way to the beginning of the universe. There may be a stage where we reach the limit of the ability to gather knowledge, true, but personally I doubt that, and I will never resort to a supernatural explanation when there is a naturalistic counterpart, because supernatural explanations by their very nature are inadequete.
But clearly you are ignoring some apparently impossible ideas -namely that of the supernatural. You seem to be ignoring these because you assume that natural explanations are the only valid ones. Is that a fair description? If so, I would challenge you to defend this position.
I will cease ignoring supernatural ideas when we see some proof of their existence -
which we never will.
Well it depends on what you regard as proof doesn't it?
Certainly I don't think we'll have any proof in the mathematical sense. However, I think we can have sound philosophical arguments (whose premises can rely on scientific data) which could give us probability to work with.
Philosophy isn't evidence, and I challenge you to provide scientific data that has had philosophical premises rested unchallenged upon it.
What I meant is that if you always assume that the science-of-gaps (the belief that there is always a scientific explanation available that will eventually be found) is the preferable route to take, then it is unfalsifiable in the sense that it assumes that there is a scientific answer even if there isn't one - it will continue to be pushed forward as truth even if there is never a satisfactory scientific answer found.
Would you rather we stopped looking for an answer?
