Australian Politics (1 Viewer)

[Lentern]

^ oh pfft.

I hope you're not one of those statistics in opinion polls that still supports (state) Labor.





Hmm interesting read, a long read, so I rather just link it.

I am one of the statistics that will see Greens gain lower hourse representation. Having said that Barry O'farrell has yet to convince me he is anything but a typical member of the liberal party aka scum, so my far more loveable local member Mr Tripodi will have my preference over his liberal counterpart.

As for my apparent optimism about the Rees governments chances, do not be fooled, I think it's about 95% certain Nathan Rees won't be premier in 2012. In fact I'd give him a 50-50 chance of making it to the next election. If O'farrell contests the election I'd give him about 90% chance of winning it. If Baird contests it, probably about 75%, if anyone else does however, which I consider a small but not inconsiderable chance, I'd give Tebbutt 60% and Rees even money. A dull, boring, moderate, late fifties, slightly overweight member of the party machine should win a landslide. But oppositions who have spent to long in exile have been known to rally behind people like Peter Debnam and Mark Latham.

 

[Rafy]

But oppositions who have spent to long in exile have been known to rally behind people like Peter Debnam and Mark Latham.

And they have also been known to get it right at the following election.

But seriously this leadership talk is just ridiculous. Barry is the Preferred Premier. The opposition are ahead 59-41. And this lead exists before they have even really started to talk policy or implement a campaign strategy.

 

[Lex152]

I'm still hoping for a hung parliament with decent politicians. A hung parliament would force the decisions to be discussed and NSW's state of play will force the government to act decisively...
But then again, they are politicians, and I am only dreaming.

I hope the opposition's time in power is short, with no negative legacy.

 

[Lentern]

And they have also been known to get it right at the following election.

But seriously this leadership talk is just ridiculous. Barry is the Preferred Premier. The opposition are ahead 59-41. And this lead exists before they have even really started to talk policy or implement a campaign strategy.

Get it right do they? I seem to remember Lord Downer having a bit of a meltdown after he took over from John Hewson(who counts as a Latham/Debnam politician) if Keating had called an earlier election he might have just clung on.

As for the inner fighting, you foolishly treat the liberals as a united, close knit group who aren't so concerned with personal gain but ensuring that the coalition takes back government at any personal cost. In actual fact alot of them will be thinking this is a slam dunk and that it is imperative not to waste this opportunity with a poppulist politician but that this is their big chance to have a liberal idealogue as a premier.

Then you have nongs who really want to be premier, who think that this is their best chance, that the incumbent government is falling over themselves and if they can just get the leadership they'll sweep to government and will be willing to chance their arm etc. Why did Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd challenge Hayden and Beazley who were headed for comfortable, albeit not emphatic victories?

Finally there arethe lemmings, those who saw how Bob Carr savaged Chicko and Brogden and think that they need a new branch of leader, not a politician, a person, a larikin or a toff, someone who will knock the government off their game and stop them playing that political instrument which they do with aplomb. Whatever the reason, there is noway Fat cat is a certainty to make it to the next election. Especially if Rees is replaced before him.

 

[Gerald10]

A Nationals MLC who I often speak with has given me the impression that the general feeling amongst the coalition is that they will win the next election. They are confident, but at the same time know its their own stupid fault that the Government is still in government and I think will not make the same mistake again.

FYI in the Libs reshuffle 'gender balance' was key in determining some positions. The last thing we need is a new government who continues to put politics above good policy.

 

[Gerald10]

Rumours are going around about Barnaby Joyce running for a lower house seat. He said it musn't be a Nationals seat as well. New England (which happens to be my current seat) is being rumoured as a potential seat. But I cannot see a situation where Windsor will be unseated - hes too popular locally and in fact the reason he first won a state seat was because the Nats pre-selected a candidate not from the area above Windsor.

Anyway anyone else even give a shit?

 

[Rafy]

I'd run Joyce in the seat of Flynn.

 

[Iron]

I'd think that he'd be even more of a disaster in the HoR. He wont be able to tow the Coalition line and the Gvt will chew him out for this every sitting. Liberals will look weak and the Coaliton will look dysfunctional

One party system isnt so bad I guess

 

[Rafy]

He'd likely become Nationals leader. That would be the end of the coalition. He'd take the federal Nats down a similar path to the WA branch of the party.

 

[Iron]

From memory, youre no fan of the 'agrarian socialists'. But, like, electorally, wont you guys be screwed?

 

[Trefoil]

First poll of the year. ALP ahead 59 to 41 on two party preferred. For a choice between Rudd and Turnbull, 50% trust Rudd to handle the economy in a crisis, 25% trust Turnbull. 61% are confident the Australian economy will withstand the crisis.

Essential Research: 59-41 - The Poll Bludger

 

[Iron]

Lol, I dont know why Turnbull hasnt cut through w the voters much more, apart from the obvious reasons. He seems to be saying and doing everything right. Heck, I love the guy!
His party and its rural ransomers however...

I'm starting to think that no man can really shape his political destiny. Blast this pesky luck!

 

[Gerald10]

Im thoroughly left wing but Im sort of disapointed that Turnbull isn't doing any better. Between him and Rudd I see very few idealogical differences and looking at his resume - the guy just urinates success.

 

[Lex152]

Maybe turnball needs a couple of shots with him with kids and pets...

I realyy don't like this convergence of political policy, what does our vote count for if the policy is the same? Image?

 

[moll.]

Maybe turnball needs a couple of shots with him with kids and pets...

I realyy don't like this convergence of political policy, what does our vote count for if the policy is the same? Image?

Just vote on personality, rather than ideology.
Only old folks stick with one party and never waver in their support for it, because they grew up in a time when there was a lot of difference between the major parties. I think that most people our age recognise that this has changed, and as such there's now an entire generation of moderates and political floor-crossers coming through.

 

[Trefoil]

Maybe turnball needs a couple of shots with him with kids and pets...

I realyy don't like this convergence of political policy, what does our vote count for if the policy is the same? Image?

If it continues, either the Greens will consistently start pulling over 20% or 30% (they're about 10% to 15% atm), or the Libs will dump the social conservatives and become somewhat Libertarian. Possibly both.

I don't like it either, BTW.

Just vote on personality, rather than ideology.
Only old folks stick with one party and never waver in their support for it, because they grew up in a time when there was a lot of difference between the major parties. I think that most people our age recognise that this has changed, and as such there's now an entire generation of moderates and political floor-crossers coming through.

Always good advice, but it won't solve the actual problem of both Labour and Liberal being right-wing parties now (albeit centre-right for Labour).

 

[Iron]

or the Libs will dump the social conservatives and become somewhat Libertarian. r).

Tell that to well over half the party dawg!

 

[Trefoil]

Tell that to well over half the party dawg!

Yeah, I can't really see it happening, which is one reason why I'd say the Greens will keep growing.

And interestingly, because of that, they'll also become more centrist (e.g. in Canada, the Greens have become centre-right). This suits me fine, as I was never really fond of the left or right to begin with.

 

[Gerald10]

Maybe turnball needs a couple of shots with him with kids and pets...

I realyy don't like this convergence of political policy, what does our vote count for if the policy is the same? Image?

Style of government and implementation of policy...

 

[Iron]

Yeah, I can't really see it happening, which is one reason why I'd say the Greens will keep growing.

And interestingly, because of that, they'll also become more centrist (e.g. in Canada, the Greens have become centre-right). This suits me fine, as I was never really fond of the left or right to begin with.

Na I reckon theyll go the way of the Dems after Brown