2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

[Iron]

That naughty Costello. First his revelation in parliament, now this!

Sounds a little intentional to me. Though I doubt he'd really want to sabotage the election. Maybe he'd prefer leading the Opposition and winning government himself 3yrs later (assuming Rudd breaks the economy)

 

[jb_nc]

(assuming Rudd breaks the economy)

Assuming? It's for sure.

 

[withoutaface]

I think it's pretty obvious to anyone that 24th was gonna be the date anyway, with the next most likely being the 17th, which won't happen because a longer campaign benefits the coalition.

My money's on the election being called in the next week, and my life for the next two months being substantially fucked because of it.

 

[Enteebee]

BOS poll:
ALP - 62%, LIB - 38% [by disregarding the other votes]

Australian Newspoll
ALP - 56%, LIB - 44%

It's hard to know what to make of these polls though.

If you knew bos you'd know this is actually a really good result for the libs, at the last election they were polling slightly above the greens on BOS. Considering the electorates shift against the libs and bos's shift towards the libs, there's probably been a fairly big liberal swing on bos

 

[withoutaface]

BOS poll:
ALP - 62%, LIB - 38% [by disregarding the other votes]

Australian Newspoll
ALP - 56%, LIB - 44%

It's hard to know what to make of these polls though.

*points to the uni student demographic who overwhelmingly vote ALP/Greens

 

[Triangulum]

The fact that you can't change your vote on the BOS poll, and a lot of people cast their vote on it more than a year ago, makes it basically meaningless.

Incidentally, your local Coalition member has probably HURT working families: http://www.votingrecord.com.au

 

[withoutaface]

The fact that you can't change your vote on the BOS poll, and a lot of people cast their vote on it more than a year ago, makes it basically meaningless.

Incidentally, your local Coalition member has probably HURT working families: http://www.votingrecord.com.au

Incidentally, your local Labor MP is probably a cunt.

 

[Triangulum]

Incidentally, your local Labor MP is probably a cunt.

Probably.

Do any swinging voters actually go to these sites?

 

[jb_nc]

WORKING FAMILIES omg no not working families

 

[jb_nc]

of which john howard is out of touch and peter costello has never been in touch


also that gay website make no sense wtf does "voted 13 times for it" mean compared to "voted 500 000 000 times" or "voted -2i times"

 

[withoutaface]

Probably.

Do any swinging voters actually go to these sites?

The fact that members can't change their vote on the WorkChoices legislation and that it was cast more than a year ago makes it basically meaningless.

 

[chicky_pie]

Labor has to win 16 seats to gain control + officially win it, is that correct?


16 seats? good luck :rofl:

 

[Iron]

I think labor will win about 5-10 seats

They do risk getting a great big uniform swing, but not in the right seats, like '98. But when you get down to it, if something like 100,000 of the right voters switch to Labor (from 04), then that would do it.

I think that's very achievable without Latham

 

[withoutaface]

Labor has to win 16 seats to gain control + officially win it, is that correct?


16 seats? good luck :rofl:

They're not going to win Wentworth, and I doubt they'll take Bennelong, so then we start getting into 5% margins. It's going to be incredibly fucking close.

 

[Rafy]

Costello leaves Swan in his wake
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-2-oct.jpg

By the way, 16 seats really isnt that much. The coalition lose their majority with the fall of 12 seats. The current state of play has the coalition losing ~30-40 seats. Marginal seat strategies will only work if they can get the result down to <52/48. The coalition will have to run one bloody awesome campaign.

 

[withoutaface]

Getting it to 52/48 won't be too difficult supposing there's a bounce when the election is called.

 

[Triangulum]

Getting it to 52/48 won't be too difficult supposing there's a bounce when the election is called.

http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/27/the-narrowing/

 

[Rafy]

*points to the uni student demographic who overwhelmingly vote ALP/Greens

Indeed. Today's ACNielsen poll has an 18-24 age breakdown.
This age group splits 66/34 TPP in Labor's favour. (Compared to 56/44 for the entire population)

On primaries its ALP 50, Coalition 30, Greens 16, Other 5. (Compared to national figures of ALP 47, Coalition 40, Greens 8, Other 6)
Our generation loves the Greens it would seem.

 

[Silver Persian]

Kevin Rudd is on Lateline trying to convince me that sitting Parliament is a waste of time :<


It's interesting that support for Labor amongst the the 18-24 demographic is only slightly higher than the support from the general population.

 

[cute.asa.button]

Haha, so what does everyone think about the debacle plastered across today's newspapers about Rudd's blunder on the death penalty.

Seriously, I love rudd and there is no way i want to spend the next four years of my life under another amoral liberal government, but he is pushing it a bit far.

Go the labour foreign affairs spokesman who made their policy anouncement, even if it was bad timing. He certainly shouldn't be getting in trouble for simply stating Labor policy. Yet for some reason Rudd thinks it necessary to appear exactly like the Howard and forego Labor policy to comply with the government like some sort of lap dog.

It's weird, you would think by now that Rudd has realised that people want change - slightly different policy on things, a new outlook. Yet he keeps turning around and following the governments lead. And in this case, it is soooo hypocritical. Seriously, how can the government think it is moral to say "oh we'll protect Australian's when they face the death penalty, but its okay to kill off people we don't like." Supporting any form of the death penalty in any other country is basically the same as having it yourself. Howard might as well just reintroduce capital punishment and maybe Rudd would let that continue as well.

I really want to vote for Rudd, but if he keeps doing this, it will just be a dumby vote for a slightly younger howard to take up the reigns again.

argh - any one else uterly irritated with our politicians at the moment.
Seriously, give us someone with some balls and the ability to be concisely outspoken and forward thinking on important issues.