2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (2 Viewers)

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Rafy: there's no way Labor is going to win 85 seats.

I guess it is a bit conservative. 90 seats maybe?

You haven't fallen for Labor's line that 16 seats is a mammoth task to achieve? If the swing is on they'll win them easily. All indications are that the swing is indeed on. (Especially in QLD where the ALP will probally pick up ~10 seats).

While I support the Liberals, when i wear my psephology hat (certified free of wishful thinking) I cannot ignore the evidence. It's unfortunately not pointing to a close election. A comfortable Labor majority (But not a landslide) is most likely.

I certainly do hope i am wrong. A Coalition win would be pretty much the greatest Australian election victory ever.

There is still a week left, so i'll reasses things and update my prediction on election eve. I can't imagine much changing though.

 

[Nick Minchin]

Coalition: 75, ALP: 73, Ind: 2
Either Windsor or Katter (both ex-Nationals) becomes kingmaker for the Coalition in exchange for excessive porkbarrelling of New England/Kennedy.

That would be an interesting situation. Labor could not form government. However if the Independents supported Labor, the house would be deadlocked. Howard would remain PM but without a majority in the house would have to call a House of Reps election. If Howard lost his seat, Costello would be PM and would be faced with an immediate election.

Katter however has said he would support the side with the plurality of seats. The coalition would likely offer the speakership to one of the independents. If one of them did accept the position the coalition would have a majority in their own right and would not have to worry about negotiating with the other independent (Speaker has no deliberative vote, so house would divide Coalition 75, Other 74)
If neither accepted I would expect an early election. The government would have to succumb to the independents every demand or face defeat on the floor of the House. Similarly you'd also have a dozen Barnaby Joyces popping up in the government ranks. Not an ideal situation.
I guess a majority is a majority, but it would be a most impotent government.
(cf. Menzies '61.)

 

[withoutaface]

The other part of the equation is that Windsor (then an independent) helped Greiner form government in NSW when he was one seat short back in 1991.

 

[Enteebee]

82/66 Labor/Liberal seats imo.

yea no way on earth the swing is uniform

you could have labor seats having a swing of 10%

The polling is actually showing little swing in strong Labor seats and larger swings in strong liberal/marginal liberal seats.

 

[Triangulum]

Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott stands by comments he made at a electorate function that WorkChoices means "certain protections" are not what they used to be.

The amateur footage of Mr Abbott talking about the government's workplace reform was captured on Tuesday and has since been released by the opposition.

During his address, Mr Abbott said the best protection for a sacked worker was to find a new job rather than seek reinstatement via unfair dismissal laws.

" ... certain 'protections' ... are not what they were, I accept that," Mr Abbott said.

"I accept that the Industrial Relations Commission doesn't have the same power to reach into the nook and cranny of every business that it used to have."

...

Mr Abbott today described his comments as "excellent" on the Nine Network.

Wow, he's really an asset for the Coalition this year, huh?

This is a pretty awesome photo of him, by the way: http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/08/28/abbott24806_wideweb__470x289,0.jpg

 

[withoutaface]

Was that not the entire point of the legislation? To allow certain conditions to be negotiated on a contract-by-contract basis?

 

[Triangulum]

Was that not the entire point of the legislation? To allow certain conditions to be negotiated on a contract-by-contract basis?

Yep. However, he phrased it as 'protections have been lost'. He should have the nous to realise that that doesn't play well, particularly when he goes on TV the next day and issues a convoluted explanation which amounts to 'you have less job security, but you probably didn't like that job anyway, so go and get another one'.

 

[Rafy]

Westpoll of WA - 52/48 in the Liberal's favour
Galaxy Marginal seats poll 53/47 TPP
Newspoll Marginal seats poll 54/46 TPP. (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-11949,00.html)

 

[Iron]

Id tip war with Indonesia, just quietly

 

[Iron]

Well the spices would be good for the economy

 

[chicky_pie]

Westpoll of WA - 52/48 in the Liberal's favour
Galaxy Marginal seats poll 53/47 TPP
Newspoll Marginal seats poll 54/46 TPP. (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22772731-11949,00.html)

obvious because Labor made W.A suffered during the Labor years, if i could recall W.A had over 1 million people unemployed and interest rates was very high there, maybe the final blow would come from W.A against Labor

 

[LCollins]

Excuse my ignorance, but aren't interest rates uniform across the country?

Yeah I got lost on that point as well.

 

[withoutaface]

But in the marginals it appears the Coalition has contained the swing against it to an average of 4.5 per cent.

The poll of 4000 voters was conducted last week in 20 key marginals across the country and covered both parties' campaign launches. It shows the ALP poised to win a net 18 seats. Mr Rudd needs 16 seats to topple Mr Howard.
[...]
Despite the poll indicating swings of 5 per cent or more to Labor in some states, in WA the swing to Mr Rudd in the most marginal seats is just 0.8 per cent.

Not there yet, but if Howard pulls back a percentage point or so the Libs might win just yet.

 

[Triangulum]

Not there yet, but if Howard pulls back a percentage point or so the Libs might win just yet.

That poll only takes in the formal marginals, though. The problem for the Liberals is that a lot of the second-tier seats (margins 5-10%) look shaky as well.

 

[Iron]

Well the polls have a 2.5-3% margin of error anyway

 

[withoutaface]

Well the polls have a 2.5-3% margin of error anyway

...which means they could be 2.5-3% the other way as well, in which case Howard's going to shit it in.

 

[jb_nc]

Libs are gone, I for one welcome our Comrade, Chairman Rudd to the Emperorship.

 

[jb_nc]

If Rudd is in, wouldnt that mean Lemma's purpose in 2011 is gonnnnnne

Hopefully John Brogden makes a return and wins the 2011 Election for NSW.

 

[jb_nc]

Supposedly the Young Liberals had HEAPS to do with Brodgen's demise; they thought he were too far left as far as I remember.

Were you in when this happened waf?

 

[Triangulum]

I was reading an article a couple of days back saying that Broggers finds it difficult even going to the parliament building, so he's pretty unlikely to make a political comeback.

Also, Broggers was on the left? And is the NSW liberal party really so pathetic that its youth branch can engineer a leader's demise? (Edit: thought not.)