2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

[Triangulum]

true, but also, (correct me if im wrong), if howard somehow loses his seat, as leader of the liberals can't he force out (by any means) a deputy bencher in a safe liberal seat and call a by election?

He could, although he'd probably only do that if the Coalition won, and it's unlikely that Bennelong would fall in the event of the Coalition hanging on.

EMRS has a poll of Tasmania showing a 59-41 split, which is actually a two point improvement for the Coalition since the last poll in August. Labor also leads by various margins in all five individual seats. The Greens are doing very well there also, presumably due to the pulp mill.

 

[withoutaface]

true, but also, (correct me if im wrong), if howard somehow loses his seat, as leader of the liberals can't he force out (by any means) a deputy bencher in a safe liberal seat and call a by election?

There is no way he'd do that because it'd just make him look like a senile old man trying to reclaim some part of his former glory.

 

[_dhj_]

Because they're conservative Asians... Y'know, Business-Owners.

The number of conservative Asians in Bennelong has stayed constant. But there has been an increase in ordinary aspirational Asian voters in that electorate, both as a result of changing divisional boundaries and of increase in new residents. The Asian vote will predominantly be with Labor. You'll see...

 

[Triangulum]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22723459-421,00.html

A HUGE number of expecting mothers delayed births in order to qualify for the increased Baby Bonus payments in July last year, a new study has revealed.
And many more soon-to-be mothers will do the same for the next increase in 2008, researchers from the University of Melbourne and the Australian National University warn.

The researchers estimated that more than 600 births were delayed until after Baby Bonus payments rose to $4000 a pop in July last year.

According to the Born (again) on the First of July study, mothers refused induced births or caesareans until the July 1, 2006.

...

“All this says is that good governments need to implement policies carefully so as to not put mothers and babies at risk.

“The government should not create incentives to shift births for non-medical reasons.”

...

“Rather than suddenly increasing the bonus of July 1, 2008, it would be more sensible to phase in the rise over a few weeks,” Professor Leigh said.

 

[Triangulum]

Latham savages 'Seinfeld' election

Because what this campaign really needed was more Mark Latham and more displays of contempt for the aspirational voters he professed to represent. Terrible photo, huh?

 

[Iron]

It was only a matter of time before he came out with something.
He doesnt have any of Keating's powers. None of it is biting. It's just embarrasing for Labor.
I think that most people can appreciate that he's a pretty grubby sort of guy, with very little credibility.

 

[Miroku]

I have no knowlege of politics.

All I know is Rudd looks gay.

 

[Iron]

I have no knowlege of politics.

All I know is Rudd looks gay.

For a very long time I was also concerned that he appeared a bit femmy - a few unfortunately flamboyant hand gestures, the delicate, soft body, excessive jewlery, the slightly too pretty smile, something unnatural about the way he walks...
But then I came 'round.

 

[Triangulum]

Labor takes the fight to the Coalition on interest rates and economic management. The parties seem to be upping their ad spend at the moment, I watched Seven News (ugh) a couple of days ago and there were five political ads in 30 minutes. (It was a 4-1 ALP-Coalition split, if anyone's interested.)

 

[Iron]

It's an interesting tactic. Latham's approach was to try and drown out the Coaliton's strengths (economy) with Labor strengths (hth/ed), rather than challenge them. Now, Rudd is taking it head on. This risks not getting his core strengths fully covered (enviro, hth/ed...), but it's a sensible admission that the national economy deserves to be debated as the crucial issue of Cth gvt.
He also happens to be lucky enough to spot Coalition vulnerabilities here.

Any ideas what rabbit the Coalition will pull out for the final two weeks?
Id say wall-to-wall Labor ads: that's been quiet for a while

Both still have ~$20billion to play with.

 

[Triangulum]

It's an interesting tactic. Latham's approach was to try and drown out the Coaliton's strengths (economy) with Labor strengths (hth/ed), rather than challenge them. Now, Rudd is taking it head on. This risks not getting his core strengths fully covered (enviro, hth/ed...), but it's a sensible admission that the national economy deserves to be debated as the crucial issue of Cth gvt.

Note the attempt in the third ad (the economic management one) to link the economy with education and health.

 

[Generator]

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2085991.htm

TONY JONES: You promised an education revolution, then you gave away in tax cuts $30 billion of money that could have actually been spent on a real education revolution. There must have been a serious debate in the Labor Party about that?

KEVIN RUDD: Well, Tony, put together our proposals on education. You just referred to the tax cuts package. We took nearly $3 billion of that away from people like myself, that is earning $180,000 a year or more, taking that $3 billion away of tax cuts and investing it instead in an education tax rebate for working families to invest in their kids' education. $1500 a year, 50 per cent of those expenses for secondary school kids, $750 a year, 50 per cent of those expenses for primary school kids, particularly in the area of laptops and computer education. We've also got half a billion dollars on early childhood education. Nothing matching from the Government there. And $2.5 billion for trades training centres in each one of Australia's 2650 secondary schools. We have a multi billion dollar program when it comes to an education revolution which is chalk and cheese compared with what Mr Howard has done in ripping money out of the system for most of the time that he's been in office.

An education revolution? We have a decentralised version of the Coalition's technical colleges and even more middle class welfare. Chalk and cheese my ar... rear end.

I know that a lot of people are of the opinion that the ALP offers a vision for the future, but when one actually looks at the ALP's proposals it's clear that they are offering grand motherhood statements and seemingly attractive yet ultimately superficial alternatives to the Coalition's policies. Education, health, Iraq, and even climate change all represent issues where the differences, though apparent, are to be found along the margins and not at the core. For someone who will be voting for the ALP but nevertheless would like a clear choice in terms of policy, it's a frustrating state of affairs.

Edit: For some strange reason the key difference slipped my mind - for the moment at least, the ALP hasn't proposed policy platforms that incorporate tied-funding regimes. In education and health, the Coalition cannot help but play politics with the money that is rightfully the responsibility of the states. Though the ALP (or Saintly Mr Rudd) wants to end the blame game, at least the ALP hasn't promised to abuse the purse-strings controlled by the Government of the day to further a federal agenda at the expense of the states. A key difference, and one that should not have slipped my mind.

 

[Iron]

I caught that interview last night. Tony was surprisingly savage. When he asked Rudd about 3 times whether the rate rise was a plus for him, Rudd kept defering to Howard's 04 promise. Tony lost it
'Does an alarm go off in your head when youre asked a simple question, saying 'stay on message, stay on message''? Rudd, i'll tell ya, if looks could kill!

But he managed to win Tony back by the end with lots of sexy talk about restoring the Westminster system in the APS.
I also liked how he got the chance to pitch a soundbite vision for Australia, like Howard did in '96 ("relaxed and comfortable") - he chose "Internationally competitive, but never throwing the fair go out the back door"

 

[Tulipa]

I fucking hate "out the back door" and the over the shoulder thumb move.

It just sounds (and looks) so rehearsed. He's not a very convincing puppet.

 

[Generator]

Mr Rudd could have quite easily knocked that question for 6 and pushed Tony Jones onto the backfoot by claiming that the question was mischevious and that he and Labor would never exploit the pain and suffering of those in the suburbs for their own political gain, but no, he chose to follow the party line and as such step aside from an excellent opportunity to take the high road.


Though I don't think that Mr Rudd is a puppet, I do agree with the idea that everything is rehearsed and I can't help but roll my eyes and/or treat the radio or tv with a look of scorn whenever I hear one of those bloody soundbites.

 

[withoutaface]

3. INTEREST RATES – Family First has a plan to put downward pressure on inflation
With interest rates up another 0.25%, Family First wonders whether Mr Howard or Mr Rudd will ever have the courage to cut petrol tax to reduce the pressure on interest rates. Rising transport costs, caused by high petrol prices, have put upward pressure on inflation and in turn, interest rates

Let's play spot the hole in Family First's policy!

 

[LCollins]

Kevin Rudd a puppet? Kevin Rudd will be the first ALP leader to step outside tradition by picking his ministers and their portfolios - rather than unions picking the front bench.

 

[withoutaface]

...unions are the front bench.

 

[withoutaface]

So is 90% of the electorate, so I fail to see the issue.

 

[jb_nc]

62/38 TPP latest morgan poll.

lol.

coalition is going to be rolled over.