Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level
And by the way, since the man (I think it was a man, forgot the name) is acting rationally, the answer depends on the man's knowledge of the whether the days' temperatures are fixed or not, right? If he thinks they are fixed, it matters not to the answer whether they actually are fixed or not, and similarly for if he thinks they are not fixed. So the key thing is not whether they are fixed, but what the man thinks/knows about them.That's the same instinct I had whilst thinking about why we get two different probabilities. Might look into it a bit more since it seems way more counter-intuitive than even the Monty Hall problem.
When I did this question I was assuming the temperatures were all fixed. Feel free to do it however you want though, I only have the answer (confirmed by other sources too so all good) using the assumption that the temperatures are fixed beforehand however.