2013 Federal election (5 Viewers)

[Sathius005]

If an election was held now it would be a hung parliament because it is 50-50 on the two party vote according to the major polling companies. It is Okashi who is an idiot for thinking that this election will be landslide for the Coalition. In NSW Labor is holding all seats, in Qld Labor is in net terms picking up seven seats, in Victoria Labor is losing four seats, South Australia Labor is holding all its seats, and in WA Labor is having a net gain of two seats. Okashi you are a disgrace.

 

[Emily Howard]

wonder wat mod owns saithius

 

[Graney]

Not sure how some idiots still think there's a possibility of a hung parliament. The Coalition automatically picks two seats in New England and Lyne. With likely gains in Corangmite and La Trobe. Possible gains with Banks and Lindsay. Any idiot who thinks hung parliament is deluded.

Dobell. There are marginal liberal seats that could go to Labor, and there'll likely be several new third party MPs. The coalition could lose a few seats in Qld to Katter and Palmer parties. Probably not a hung parliament, maybe.

 

[Tasteless]

idk about dobell even with craigy boy, always been pretty labory at least in my living memory

 

[Okashi]

If an election was held now it would be a hung parliament because it is 50-50 on the two party vote according to the major polling companies. It is Okashi who is an idiot for thinking that this election will be landslide for the Coalition. In NSW Labor is holding all seats, in Qld Labor is in net terms picking up seven seats, in Victoria Labor is losing four seats, South Australia Labor is holding all its seats, and in WA Labor is having a net gain of two seats. Okashi you are a disgrace.

It's not 50-50. It's 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. I never said it was a landslide for the Coalition but not possible to result in a hung parliament. Where are you getting the data that Labor is picking all those seats , not even relatively possible. And you're a disgrace to the labor movement.

 

[Graney]

idk about dobell even with craigy boy, always been pretty labory at least in my living memory

u wot m8? It was solidly Labor 20 years ago, but it was one of the most marginal Labor seats in the country in 2010, before all the crimes were exposed. The Liberals have a strong candidate. The recently announced Labor candidate is a former liberal candidate who claims he has seen the light (srs; lol).

 

[Graney]

If an election was held now it would be a hung parliament because it is 50-50 on the two party vote according to the major polling companies. It is Okashi who is an idiot for thinking that this election will be landslide for the Coalition. In NSW Labor is holding all seats, in Qld Labor is in net terms picking up seven seats, in Victoria Labor is losing four seats, South Australia Labor is holding all its seats, and in WA Labor is having a net gain of two seats. Okashi you are a disgrace.

How can Labor simultaneously be picking up 5 seats, and leading a hung parliament?

 

[lochnessmonsta]

The problem with aggregate polling is that it doesnt take into account individual electorates. Kevin Rudd's seat counts as much as Wyatt Roy's for gods sake. The better way to measure elections is actually in the betting market, which is currently predicting a 30 seat margin to the coalition. In 2010 the market correctly predicted 147/150 seats or something, and with that margin of error and a 30 seat prediction it becomes pretty clear who is going to win.

 

[flashyGoldFish]

The problem with aggregate polling is that it doesnt take into account individual electorates. Kevin Rudd's seat counts as much as Wyatt Roy's for gods sake. The better way to measure elections is actually in the betting market, which is currently predicting a 30 seat margin to the coalition. In 2010 the market correctly predicted 147/150 seats or something, and with that margin of error and a 30 seat prediction it becomes pretty clear who is going to win.

Lets hope it stays that way

 

[scuba_steve2121]

my friend works at news poll, he's one of the best on staff getting 3% of the people he calls actually doing a survey, the majoirty of which are retired,unemplyed or uni students with nothing beter to do.

 

[soloooooo]

wonder wat mod owns saithius

It has got to be townie.

 

[Sathius005]

If an election was held now it would be a hung parliament because it is 50-50 on the two party vote according to the average of the polls from the major polling companies. It is Okashi who is an idiot for thinking that this election will be landslide for the Coalition. In NSW Labor is holding all seats, in Qld Labor is in net terms picking up seven seats, in Victoria Labor is losing four seats, South Australia Labor is holding all its seats, in WA Labor is having a net gain of two seats and in Tasmania Labor is losing three seats. Okashi you are a disgrace to the Coalition movement.

 

[Okashi]

If an election was held now it would be a hung parliament because it is 50-50 on the two party vote according to the average of the polls from the major polling companies. It is Okashi who is an idiot for thinking that this election will be landslide for the Coalition. In NSW Labor is holding all seats, in Qld Labor is in net terms picking up seven seats, in Victoria Labor is losing four seats, South Australia Labor is holding all its seats, in WA Labor is having a net gain of two seats and in Tasmania Labor is losing three seats. Okashi you are a disgrace to the Coalition movement.

As someone previously said if Labor is picking up all those seats then its impossible to result in a hung parliament. If the opinion polls do say 50-50 it doesn't mean the swings are applied uniformly across Australia. And you still haven't told me where you are getting this data from on Labor winning all these seats.

 

[Sathius005]

The Rudd factor is helping the ALP pick up seven seats in Queensland. Rudd is the preferred PM in Queensland over Abbott. I think Rudd is the best leader for the difficult economic circumstances we now confront. Rudd is doing a strong job for ALP.

 

[Sathius005]

Labor is picking up a net gain of two seats when compared to the 2010 federal election. In 2010 Labor had 72 seats. In 2013 Labor will most likely have 74 seats if an election was held now. The Coalition has 73 seats if an election was held now. Labor will form a minority government with the support of Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt if an election was held now. Even though the Coalition would win 50.3 per cent of the 2 Party Vote if an election was held now. Labor would still win the majority of the seats. I highly suggest that you search Poll Bludger on Google and you will see what i am talking about. Otherwise see the image what I have attached on this post..

As the Poll Bludger image shows in different states there are different swings. There is no uniform swing. But the uniform swing is 0.4 per cent to the Coalition.

According to confidential Labor polling which I have seen Labor is picking up the seat of Fisher from the Independent Peter Slipper. The poll bludger result was induced by doing polling in all 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

 

[Sathius005]

The Labor party and the Coalition can't form a majority government because they do not have 76 seats in the House of Representatives if an election was held now. According to Newspoll if an election was held now the Coalition would win the election. But according to the average poll result from the major polling companies (AC Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy, Morgan and Essential Research) it is is 50-50. I predict this election will be a photo finish.

 

[townie]

There is no uniform swing. But the uniform swing is 0.4 per cent to the Coalition.

Yes, this makes a lot of sense

 

[Emily Howard]

It has got to be townie.

must b townie den rafdwag must b in on it

 

[Sathius005]

Betting markets loses credbility.
Sportsbet polling day odds correctly predicted the outcome in 147 of the 150 electorates in the 2010 federal election. As of yesterday, Sportsbet estimates Labor's chances of election victory to be only 23 per cent. Newspoll in the 2010 federal election leading up to polling day predicted the Australian Labor Party to win 50.2 per cent of the two party preferred vote. Actually the federal Labor party managed to win with 50.12 per cent of the two party vote.

What Sportsbet predicted in 2013 under PM Gillard was 49 seats for Labor, 95 seats for Coalition and 6 seats for others. Under PM Rudd 56 seats for Labor, 88 seats for Coalition and 6 seats for others. Poll Bludger and Newspoll says that Labor would win 74 seats if an election was held now.

 

[Sathius005]

Rudd lurches to the far right on border protection.
Kevin Rudd has announced tough border protection policies with the announcement that refugees coming via boats are presumed to be economic refugees. This hard line approach to border protection outlined by the Immigration Minister, Tony Burke says that asylum seekers are abusing the generosity of the Australian people. Tony Burke has failed to rebut the feedback from the Department of Immigration that at least 90 per cent of asylum seekers are genuine refugees.The Labor party is lurching to the far right to appease the asylum seeker hating majority in the Australian community. Vote Greens if you want to show compassion and solidarity with asylum seekers.