Re: 2013 Australian Federal election
Oh, how you tempt me Lentern... You have forced me to look up from My Kitchen Rules.
My reasons:
1. It makes a clear distinction between governing and electioneering, between Govt and opposition. Think about it, since the 2010 election the LNP has been in a constant 'campaign' mode, owing to the minority govt. They have sought to create the atmosphere of a govt that is loosing it's head, not getting the job done. This has of course played into Abbott's 'attack' style of politics. The mini lib campaign was designed in part to build momentum for the LNP, for them to set the tone. Now, because Gillard has set the date it shifts momentum to the Labor party as they announce big policy moves such as NIDS and Gonski which are electorally popular. A key + for a govt in election is naturally incumbency: Labor will be seen to being pushing through hard reforms while the opposition continues with their 'negativity'. Labor can make a lot, politically, of Gillard and her determination to battle on for families, the disabled.
2. Despite the clarification of the election date, this will put pressure on Abbott et al to release their polices, after all, Labor can argue that they cannot hide behind an elusive, unknown election date. While the opposition will (rightly) argue that they need to see the Budget to release policy costings/details etc this will force, I believe the Libs to unveil some major polices at no later than May. This pressure will tie into the Labor argument that Abbott is all talk and no action.
3. This will head off any likelihood of a Rudd comeback - a triple lazarus. A challenge from Rudd pitched to Labor would of gone 'the electorate loves me (mugs...), I am popular, Abbott is not, I can sell policy in the short terms, put me back in the top box and we'll call a snap election, Abbott won't have any polices'. Usually a change of leaders occurs right before the election date is announced (think of the Hayden/Hawke change - although Fraser was 'tired' by then) and has god results. Because of the clarity of the date, Rudd will of lost a 'What if?' sheen associated with a snap election, an off guard, policy strapped opposition. Gillard has very nicely headed off a Rudd return (shudders).
However, with ALL that being said... The LNP will tear Labor apart come the May Budget. The LNP are very effective when on the C Trial. Also, I very much believe that the LNP polices will actually be fairly good this time around. I mean if Abbott gets IR policy right then the media will sing his praises till he parts. Further, they have ICAC and AWU to play with. Labor will make out that an Abbott Govt will be the same as a Newman Govt the reality is that we need to drastically cut spending, cut red tape, the bureaucracy. But just wait... Abbott, post budget will use some very hard hitting clever rhetoric which will be along the lines of: "this is what the Libs do, they clean up after Labor has made the mess. We are the economically responsible ones, making the hard yet necessary decisions". I Bet you, that when Abbott pulls out this language the LNP will start to look stable, it will tie into the larger, bigger Lib message of 'who do your trust'.
Sorry to overload you with my dribble.
