Who should win the next election (2 Viewers)

[kaz1]

I generally support liberal, but the sex party has some pretty good policies.
Only problem is nobody takes it seriously.

hahaha, what


I don't support the liberal party, they dislike negroes.

 

[Lolsmith]

i wish i understood how people made the leap from "i generally support liberal" to "the sex party has some pretty good policies"

idiocy

 

[Lentern]

Actually 'maggie' Abbott beats Rudd. You seem forget after his honey moon period that Abbott dominated Rudd, the latter showing a steady decrease in polling.

False,the Newspoll quarterly for Rudd's last three months in office had Rudd leading 53-47. His last two polls were increasing his lead two. And those were just voting intentions, every other indicator had Rudd dominating Rudd by enormous margins. The Rudd Abbott debate was overwhelmingly judged a victory for Rudd, even Andrew Bolt conceded it. You are pushing lazy revisionism like some telegraph shock jock.

 

[shannan94]

Ill be interested to see how the greens fair in this next election, whether they increase their popularity on the back of Adam Bandt etc or Labor pulls the plug on their preferences all together and they wither away in a parallel of one nation

 

[will90211]

2pp was up, yes. But the satisfaction question was in the 30's.Of course the satisfaction question means nothing really (like who is the preferred PM, ugh), but this combined with Rudd'd 'great backflip' put him in an untenable decision.
http://blogs.news.com.au/images/uploads/newspolljuly2009-june2010.jpg

 

[Lentern]

Nope

I don't believe this is why politicians are popular. I think they're popular because of the personality they provide. Gillard is *terrible* at this, despite being a capable and intelligent woman. Abbott comes across as a fucking moron, but Rudd portrayed himself well. Going to a strip club in the States was great for him, it makes him seem like a regular Joe Blow; coupled with his skills in Mandarin (I'm pretty sure he speaks Mandarin, not Cantonese), he gives off a vibe that will get the job done.

I think they are interdependent. I think what you are referring to with the last sentence is the perception of competence which I agree is a huge factor. But I think genuine incompetence/corruption is pretty well unhidable, see Kirstina Kenneally for example who was charming but was positively bumbling when it came to administration. Likewise Gillard doesn't have a repulsive personality, she was quite well liked initially but by saying things like 'I'm not really interested in Foreign Affairs' and her policy pirouetting on asylum seekers and climate change (hullo citizens assembly) she has left herself open to a massive perception of incompetence which I think is justified to an extent. Do I think she is incapable of running good government? Probably not, but having now repudiated Rudd's agenda to justify her overtaking, despite the fact that everyone knew it was about personality, she is trying to push alternatives to the airtight policies which public servants spent the better part of three years designing. And so we get this unconvincing half commitment to on shore processing, or regional processing centres, or East Timor processing, Or Malaysian processing. Climate change is probably the best example, a final policy package that effectively becomes Rudd's package but not for three years when hopefully people forget about him.

 

[Lentern]

2pp was up, yes. But the satisfaction question was in the 30's.Of course the satisfaction question means nothing really (like who is the preferred PM, ugh), but this combined with Rudd'd 'great backflip' put him in an untenable decision.
http://blogs.news.com.au/images/uploads/newspolljuly2009-june2010.jpg

What great backflip, please all these people telling me Rudd dropped the ball on climate change, what he should have done. A Double Dissolution would not have resulted in senate passage for the CPRS, Labor would have needed to clock something in the realm of 56% according to Antony Green's calculator if they were going to get passage despite the unified opposition from the Liberal Party and the Greens.

 

[Lentern]

Ill be interested to see how the greens fair in this next election, whether they increase their popularity on the back of Adam Bandt etc or Labor pulls the plug on their preferences all together and they wither away in a parallel of one nation

One Nation peaked at around 8 percent nationally and only got more than 5% at a federal election once (1998). The Greens have consistently gotten more than 7% since 2004, the comparison is poor.

 

[will90211]

He promised something, pushed into it by the kitchen cabinet, and called it 'the greatest moral challenge of our time'. You fly the flag for you believe in, that means, going to DD. I'm big Keaneally supporter. She appeared on qanda after the election and was charming, witty and had some good opinions. Commentators agree that the stab-in-the-back was the start of the Labor troubles. Gillard can be effective, but her advisors and staff have let her down. The NIDS should od been a trump card but instead it was bungled. Like everything that Gillard touches - it turns to ashe

 

[shannan94]

the comparison is poor.

The comparison was in relation to the single preferential transfer system we use here in Australia. It is fact that the parties did not preference One Nation, under Australia's single transferable vote voting system. If you are familiar with the recent labor NSW branch conference they voted to no-longer give the greens preference.

 

[soloooooo]

hahaha, what


I don't support the liberal party, they dislike negroes.

I don't think they dislike you. Race has nothing to do with it, it is all about culture.

 

[soloooooo]

One Nation peaked at around 8 percent nationally and only got more than 5% at a federal election once (1998). The Greens have consistently gotten more than 7% since 2004, the comparison is poor.

One Nation might be gone as a political party although parties will replace them (and grow larger) as Australia tends towards the right.

 

[U MAD BRO]

Liberal > Labour

 

[soloooooo]

Liberal > Labour

For the most part, yes. Although learn how to spell Labor, as even thoguh your point is valid and correct, when you spell the losing party name wrong it makes it harder for some people to take you seriously and you lose some credibility.

 

[Lentern]

He promised something, pushed into it by the kitchen cabinet, and called it 'the greatest moral challenge of our time'. You fly the flag for you believe in, that means, going to DD. I'm big Keaneally supporter. She appeared on qanda after the election and was charming, witty and had some good opinions. Commentators agree that the stab-in-the-back was the start of the Labor troubles. Gillard can be effective, but her advisors and staff have let her down. The NIDS should od been a trump card but instead it was bungled. Like everything that Gillard touches - it turns to ashe

How would that have made anything any better? A bit of feel good symbolism.

 

[Lentern]

The comparison was in relation to the single preferential transfer system we use here in Australia. It is fact that the parties did not preference One Nation, under Australia's single transferable vote voting system. If you are familiar with the recent labor NSW branch conference they voted to no-longer give the greens preference.

Except the Liberal Party always put One Nation last on their preferences, even when One Nation's vote kept growing.

 

[U MAD BRO]

For the most part, yes. Although learn how to spell Labor, as even thoguh your point is valid and correct, when you spell the losing party name wrong it makes it harder for some people to take you seriously and you lose some credibility.

I'm not into Legal stuff at all
Spell checker did correct it.

 

[pduggan161]

it depends on how you view a successful government, labor is doing appallingly in the public eye but has lived up to most of their policy promises moreso than any other government to date. but sadly a liberal win is inevatable due to labors terrible media co ordination

 

[Rafy]

What great backflip, please all these people telling me Rudd dropped the ball on climate change, what he should have done. A Double Dissolution would not have resulted in senate passage for the CPRS, Labor would have needed to clock something in the realm of 56% according to Antony Green's calculator if they were going to get passage despite the unified opposition from the Liberal Party and the Greens.

Even with a joint sitting of the houses?

 

[Lentern]

Even with a joint sitting of the houses?

A joint sitting is fraught with dangers. It has only occurred once before and the High Court then struck down the legislation anyway, given the new legislation with the Turnbull amendments on it had only gone to the upper house once before it could well have gotten struck down by courts. There is no guarantee Labor could have forced the legislation through, for example say Labor won 80 seats in the HOR and 32 in the upper house, (both quite plausible prospects) it would not have control of a joint sitting. And finally these things take time, legislation has to be reintroduced after the election, convention dictates the charade of negotiations should occur, at it's earliest Antony Green reckons Rudd could have convened a joint sitting in November 2011. Given that Rudd only deferred the bill until the end of 2012, in reality you're talking about jumping through constitutional circus hoops to bring forward the date of something by a relatively insignificant small margin.