Australian Politics (5 Viewers)

[Garygaz]

m8 internet filter legislation almost would turn my vote away from labor alone. what are the chances the filter goes through with a liberal government?

i'm trying to think what is worse, a internet filter or tony as pm

 

[Phoenix Fury]

filter is worse I think, it's p close though...

 

[Existential]

m8 internet filter legislation almost would turn my vote away from labor alone. what are the chances the filter goes through with a liberal government?

i'm trying to think what is worse, a internet filter or tony as pm

lol that's a hard question.

but it's common knowledge that tony isn't "leading" his party, and it's common knowledge that some liberal front benchers are pro-filter.

the problem with the liberal party is that they are still divided on issues. so liberal is really a vote for the unknown.

 

[Slidey]

m8 internet filter legislation almost would turn my vote away from labor alone. what are the chances the filter goes through with a liberal government?

i'm trying to think what is worse, a internet filter or tony as pm

I don't know the answer to that. I'm in the same position as you.

I do know that the Greens oppose it, so getting them into the balance of power (so they can block the filter) is my first priority.

 

[Rafy]

 

[Lentern]

Are those graphs possums doing Rafy? They have his fingerprints allover them.

 

[Slidey]

I don't think they mean much anymore due to the ambiguity of preference flows.

 

[Lentern]

I don't think they mean much anymore due to the ambiguity of preference flows.

Could we expand on this please? Not being cynical, curious.

 

[Slidey]

Something very interesting I've noticed in the past few months is that old Democrat voters, members, and parliamentarians are joining the Greens in droves.

It looks like the Greens have finally broken past the "extremist" reputation and are now attracting economically and socially progressive Democrat voters (i.e. those ex-Dems holding out on voting Greens due to economic fears).

Excellent! This should bolster the party itself, as well as Australian politics in general.

 

[Slidey]

Could we expand on this please? Not being cynical, curious.

Yes, we certainly can!

There's a whole statistical analysis of it here: Labor and the retreat of Greens preferences – Pollytics

 

[Lentern]

Something very interesting I've noticed in the past few months is that old Democrat voters, members, and parliamentarians are joining the Greens in droves.

It looks like the Greens have finally broken past the "extremist" reputation and are now attracting economically and socially progressive Democrat voters (i.e. those ex-Dems holding out on voting Greens due to economic fears).

Excellent! This should bolster the party itself, as well as Australian politics in general.

I think the greens vote in the 2007 election was understated because of the "anyone but Howard" sentiment that resonated so strongly in the left. When a liberal government is in power the greens and the labor left tend to function almost as a very loose coalition of the left and many people who in an ideal world would like to see Bob Brown as prime minister get behind the labor lot for the "greater good".

Once a centralist labor party enters government and begins to actually be a centralist government this notion of a coalition completely falls apart. So while we might be seeing a lot of former democrats coming green (Andrew Bartlett probably has a big role to play in that) I suspect the biggest factor is the lack of a conservative government in place to keep the left somewhat united. I actually wonder if it could vaguely be in labor's long term interest that this be a short lived government. I suspect if it is a long term government they are going to lose not just a few seats but that the greens will get a grassroots foundation in the inner city seats across the east coast and maybe even shatter the ALP's western Sydney stronghold.

 

[Lentern]

Yes, we certainly can!

There's a whole statistical analysis of it here: Labor and the retreat of Greens preferences – Pollytics

I don't see how thats ambiguous though; I mean you could have family first preferencing the greens and it might be a bit weird but ultimately, as far as opinion polls can determine, it's fairly clear how many votes there will be for the coalition, labor and greens in their respective final counts at the next election.

 

[Garygaz]

I've heard particular rumors through a particular family friend that the libs are considering dumping Abbott before the election. What do you all think of this?

I for one think it to be a great idea.

 

[Lentern]

I've heard particular rumors through a particular family friend that the libs are considering dumping Abbott before the election. What do you all think of this?

I for one think it to be a great idea.

I think it is a load of rubbish. The last month has been the first month since losing government that the coalition has had any real expectation of winning. You and I may think that hope is false but having reluctantly decided they will give him a go(the lass few supporters to leave Hockey and Turnbull I mean) they aren't about to dump him now that he has dragged the prime minister down so far. Like I said most mp's were resigned to losing when they put him in, their sentiment would have been "if we win, great, if we lose then the bastards real hopes of leading the party or having a senior portfolio in the future will be well and truly over and we then can put someone proper in the job. In the mean time, we'll bite our tongues."

Keep in mind it's probably only a month now till Rudd gives the governor general a ring.

 

[Garygaz]

he can put off the election until march next year. i think he may wait.

 

[Lentern]

he can put off the election until march next year. i think he may wait.

Our learned friend Slidey with the help of Antony Green has some compelling evidence to the contrary. Most important of which was that retiring MP's were told to give their farewell speeches to the parliament during this recent sitting.

 

[Garygaz]

hmm interesting, i still think it'd be better for him to wait. the bad pr is gonna slow down on the mining. the media/public will get bored eventually.

 

[Slidey]

I don't see how thats ambiguous though; I mean you could have family first preferencing the greens and it might be a bit weird but ultimately, as far as opinion polls can determine, it's fairly clear how many votes there will be for the coalition, labor and greens in their respective final counts at the next election.

As the Greens vote share increases, Greens preferences flow less to Labour and more to Liberal (though still predominantly Labour).

So it's not clear in my opinion.

 

[Lentern]

As the Greens vote share increases, Greens preferences flow less to Labour and more to Liberal (though still predominantly Labour).

So it's not clear in my opinion.

What isn't clear? Or rather, how does it affect the meaning of those graphs? I can see how "if the greens vote continues to grow then it is unclear whether this will favour the coalition or the government" but how does it make anything unclear right now? These people told us who they will preference, it's not speculative.

 

[Slidey]

What isn't clear? Or rather, how does it affect the meaning of those graphs? I can see how "if the greens vote continues to grow then it is unclear whether this will favour the coalition or the government" but how does it make anything unclear right now? These people told us who they will preference, it's not speculative.

The election is ages away, so those poll results will change, and with them the preference flows.