Do you think that a second stimulus package is needed to boost our economy? (2 Viewers)

[H@wkeye!]

Yeah it took a war's worth of keynsian spending to get them out of the great depression...

Great

Idea

Guys

Didn't even work, because of teh hypar inflay shunz.

We don't need a standing army, disband all of our armed forces. We have a police service and a security service.

You have some very interesting view on economic history, and judging from the fact that you seem to know "Keynesian" by name at least, so i'm going to assume you're an econs major.

First dispanding ALL our armed forces? hrm great idea, who polices the waters of northern australia? I agree we could do with more immigrants, but no boat people, and illegal smugglers, or drug runners, common get real! AND DON'T SAY fisheries and customs can do it all, get real. Our armed forces arn't for war so much, more defence, and detterant and whatnot, dispanding them would be a disaster - plus it'll never happen...

Hyper inflation happened in Germany during the late twenties, not the UK, the US or any other country during the recession. In a recession, inflation drops, unemployment rises, that's where the theory of the lorenze curve came from (yes, i know you're probably a neo-classical, who will say that this theory has been disproved, and yes, i'm not arguing that). Curiously, the great depression started to fizzle out, well and truely prior to the war. Granted it was rearming that did this, but it DID NOT take a whole war's worth of spending to bring the world out of depression.

The great depression happened due to overinvestment after the first world war, and we can see, in a similar kind of way, that happened again here, in regards to overinvestment in (super risky) sub-prime mortages. So, in a sense the conditions are at least slightly similar. What then happened, as i mentioned before, was competitive devaluation of exchange rates so countries could maintain their export's competitiveness, as everything moved off the gold standard.

What we have now, is governments running around throwing money at their economy in the hope that this will increase demand, and imporve consumer confidence. Problem is, the sub-prime mortages hit so hard, and over such a long time, that lots and lots of damage was done - so now, whether or not the stimulas packages will work, it will take a while. You can't just dump a few billion on the economy overnight (even the first stimulas package was only a few hundred million). Takes time....

 

[moll.]

do you guys think this second stimulus package will be like the first one? just a nice sum of money to all those who recieve benefits? i heard it is but it'll be even bigger this time.

My guess is that it'll be worth somewhere between $10 billion and $15 billion. But this time it'll be less of a panic-measure and not just a quick stop gap where Rudd throws money at people. There'll be more focus on the medium-term goal of evading job losses, rather than just stimulating spending, and the means by which this is brought about will be much better considered and though out than in October. Will probably also have far more focus on infastructure spending and specific programs.

 

[ziki]

Ok finally read through all of this stuff.

Cut defence spending??? wtf?

let me explain. Defence spending is putting govt money into the economy, almost EVERYTHING our def force gets, comes from Aust (i was in the Navy for a while, so i do know). Granted it's not everything, but most. Our bullets are made in Lithlow, our ships are made in Freo, our food is sourced here, etc etc. The only thing we don't get from here is the high tech stuff.

So, reducing spending on def would just leave money sitting around in the govt purse (which i might add, is the same as throwing it away, as money the govt doesn't spend - ie. surplus budget - does not get interest, or spent, effectively it simply reduces in absolute value as it's effected by inflation.

And to those people who say increase import tariffs, get off your fucken high horse! That's EXACTLY what made the great depression so bad! the countries were on the gold standard, then they left it as things started to go to shit, so they "competitively devalued" their exchange rate, so their exports would become cheaper to other countries. Then the other countries did this and it all went to shit! Increasing taxes on imports would just make imports more expensive, and give money money to the government, it would have no immediate effect on demand for imports.

Moll, yes the GST is fed, but there is NO way they'd ever get to spend it.

See, the problem with economics and economies, is it's all theory's and precidents. We hyphosise a lot and that's why we get situations like this. There is no clear cut answer, and so nice discussions like this will always ensue.

Problem with stimulas packages, is while they give a bundle of money to the economy, which is what we need, is they also lead to consumer depression (for lack of a better word) they signal that the economy is in the shit, and so people lose confidence. What we need is a nice warm cup of confidence, on an internation scale.

oh i see i see thank you

 

[Graney]

Oh hey there guys

Rudd's $42 billion 'nation building' plan - National - smh.com.au

 

[Graney]

Who are working Australians? Do I get money because I work a casual job?

 

[CIV1501]

Im pretty sure its everyone working and earning under $100000. Whats with all the comments about not getting the bonus because they are single? Im pretty sure i read it correctly and every person working and earning under $100000 will get $950? Thats why its like 8.9million payouts

 

[AlleyCat]

look my eyes glaze over as soon as i start to read about economics, so i am very ignorant on this subject, but when i see the rudd govt spend the amount of money that could give us a maglev train or the beginnings of one, which would help the environment and save people money, i die a little inside.

i really really want a maglev train.

/ignorance parade.

EDIT: i want to be a reporter, so i really need to be able to understand shiz like this, but i have SO MUCH FUCKING TROUBLE WITH IT.

can anyone solve my problem with a link to an easy to understand guide to why the recession happened the first time and what is happening now, because i think ill need to write a blog on it for uni this year and UGHHHHHhhhhhhhh

 

[whatashotbyseve]

Im pretty sure its everyone working and earning under $100000. Whats with all the comments about not getting the bonus because they are single? Im pretty sure i read it correctly and every person working and earning under $100000 will get $950? Thats why its like 8.9million payouts

Its $950 for under $80k. It falls to $650 for $80-90k and $300 for $90-100k.

 

[moll.]

Its $950 for under $80k. It falls to $650 for $80-90k and $300 for $90-100k.

And nothing if you have worked your arse off for years and sacrificed money in the short-term for a better education.

 

[H@wkeye!]

look my eyes glaze over as soon as i start to read about economics, so i am very ignorant on this subject, but when i see the rudd govt spend the amount of money that could give us a maglev train or the beginnings of one, which would help the environment and save people money, i die a little inside.

i really really want a maglev train.

/ignorance parade.

EDIT: i want to be a reporter, so i really need to be able to understand shiz like this, but i have SO MUCH FUCKING TROUBLE WITH IT.

can anyone solve my problem with a link to an easy to understand guide to why the recession happened the first time and what is happening now, because i think ill need to write a blog on it for uni this year and UGHHHHHhhhhhhhh

What'd ya want to know? I did spend 4 years of my life studying this type of stuff, so i might be able to give you a little help with it all.....

PM me if you're interested

 

[КГБ]

this second stimulus package is created to pander the ignorant bogan vote from western Sydney.

my neighbor is going to fucking get $6000. whereas our family is with 0. why? because we earn too much.


i couldve payed off the $700 fine on my table.

fuck rudd

 

[CIV1501]

so the payments add up do they? like would my parents get 3 payments for being farmers and under the 100000 limits etc

 

[AlleyCat]

What'd ya want to know? I did spend 4 years of my life studying this type of stuff, so i might be able to give you a little help with it all.....

PM me if you're interested

thanks honey.

i'll think about what confuses me the most and get back to you.

 

[H@wkeye!]

thanks honey.

i'll think about what confuses me the most and get back to you.

Nps

 

[neo o]

I made this point in the other thread. Keynes style fiscal deficits operate on one key and very bad assumption.

1. Wages are sticky and won't fall during a recession.

2. Government spending will increase inflation.

3. Real wages will fall and workers are too stupid to notice.

4. Businesses can get back to hiring now that real wages have fallen.

However, while unionists are pretty dumb, unions really aren't as stupid as 3) assumes.

PS: I'll be putting my payment towards credit card debt and using it as spending money in Europe at the end of the year. I feel like I've beaten the system.