To stay or not to stay: Howard (2 Viewers)

[karpov]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/...ce-ahead/2005/11/13/1131816796760.html?page=2

This is an article about possible future Liberal leaders when Howard goes, or if he does end up going. Howard will soon achieve his political-life-long ambitions of IR reforms and after he passes the 10 year milestone I think there would be limitied motivation to stay on. What do people think, will he be chasing a 5th election win in 2007 or will Costello challenge before his 12th budget?

 

[erawamai]

Howard could go any time soon. John Howard's long lived wet dream of IR reform is all done.

I think a major consideration in him staying on is Janet. I don't think she wants to move out of Kirrabilli house with its multi million dollar views back to Woolstonecraft (of all places).

 

[Rafy]

I compare the situation to Bob Carr. Carr was publically uncommitted to his future plans before he left. Howard will leave in much the same manner as Carr. i.e on a completely random day and out of the blue....And it will be this term, with control of the senate he can finally achieve all he wants to and leave a final legacy and mark on the country.

 

[Capitalist Pig]

*waves a "Minchin for PM" flag.

 

[Not-That-Bright]

I'm all for Nelson.

However; On that point, I've got no problem if Howard wants to go to another election.

 

[Capitalist Pig]

I personally don't think that Costello will get it, there's far too much influence from the dries for that to happen, it'll probably be Abbot, but yeah Nelson would be nice.

 

[Not-That-Bright]

I don't think Alexander will get it either...
Personally I think he's a strong leader etc, but his accent lets him down... he would cost alot of votes.

I find that alot of women like Abbott (strangely enough?) I think due to that thing with his 'son' there was alot of personal stories written about him that must have touched some women's hearts.

Costello could get it, because I do think he is a strong asset to the government and his leaving (which would happen if he didn't get pm) would hurt the libs.

 

[erawamai]

I'm all for Nelson.

However; On that point, I've got no problem if Howard wants to go to another election.

He will never be PM or leader. He was once an ALP member and, so it is said, some liberals still don't like him.

costello is next in line. PM doesn't have to be interesting. Costello is just as prosaic as Howard.

 

[Capitalist Pig]

He will never be PM or leader. He was once an ALP member and, so it is said, some liberals still don't like him.

costello is next in line. PM doesn't have to be interesting. Costello is just as prosaic as Howard.

I thought he was DLP?

 

[Not-That-Bright]

Nelson has delivered VSU, I think he is in with a chance.

Costello is (imo) the most likely, because the libs will probably be too scared of what the fall-out of a Costello temper-tantrum would be.

edit: I've gotten ahead of myself... Nelson WILL deliver VSU

 

[sparkl3z]

bleh....GO THE GREENS!!!!!!!!!!

 

[hiphophooray123]

i think the IR reforms are a bit too much but aside from that howard is doing good, those terror laws are spot on. Some dumbasses on my WebCT think that were headed towards stalinism, how the fuck are we?

 

[Not-That-Bright]

Some dumbasses on my WebCT think that were headed towards stalinism, how the fuck are we?

Don't tell people that... they'll realise the rumours about our uni are true.

 

[transcendent]

I'm hoping for Costello. Nelson runs like a little girl whenever there is a possible protest at his 'speeches'.

 

[MoonlightSonata]

Either Howard will be foolish and try another term - in which case Costello will challenge. This is very unlikely.

Or Howard packs it in and hands it over to Costello, probably sometime early to mid 2006 (they would want to give Costello at least a year to make an impression).

Costello is pretty much a certainty. I think the length of his stint is the real question.

 

[Capitalist Pig]

I'm hoping for Costello. Nelson runs like a little girl whenever there is a possible protest at his 'speeches'.

 

[erawamai]

Either Howard will be foolish and try another term - in which case Costello will challenge. This is very unlikely.

Or Howard packs it in and hands it over to Costello, probably sometime early to mid 2006 (they would want to give Costello at least a year to make an impression).

Costello is pretty much a certainty. I think the length of his stint is the real question.

I really do think Janet has a big role to play in this. Janet has made Kirribilli her home. It has beautiful laws, million dollar views and is just much better than moving back to where they lived before.

I really do not think she wants to move from there. Then again I'd lived there I wouldnt move.

http://www.airviewonline.com.au/photos/0102/1269/0102-1269-18.jpg

 

[Generator]

Forget about the views. Would you want to leave a house that has what is meant to be an excellent wine cellar?

Edit: Nelson isn't an option (as iamaware pointed out, being a former laborite doesn't help), and Abbott is for the future (as is Turnball, if the reports are to be believed. Given that Downer has already had his stab, I say that it will be Costello, but I doubt that he'd push for a changeover if it meant a chance at being defeated and sent to the backbench. He'll bide his time, and just hope that nobody else makes their presence known.

Last week I read that there may be a ministerial re-shuffle in the offing, so that may throw up the odd hint or two.

 

[MoonlightSonata]

I really do think Janet has a big role to play in this. Janet has made Kirribilli her home. It has beautiful laws, million dollar views and is just much better than moving back to where they lived before.

I really do not think she wants to move from there. Then again I'd lived there I wouldnt move.

http://www.airviewonline.com.au/photos/0102/1269/0102-1269-18.jpg

haha

Janet is rumoured to be a shrewd contributor behind the scenes, but I'm pretty sure she can find another property equally redeeming.

 

[Capitalist Pig]

Forget about the views. Would you want to leave a house that has what is meant to be an excellent wine cellar?

Edit: Nelson isn't an option (as iamaware pointed out, being a former laborite doesn't help), and Abbott is for the future (as is Turnball, if the reports are to be believed. Given that Downer has already had his stab, I say that it will be Costello, but I doubt that he'd push for a changeover if it meant a chance at being defeated and sent to the backbench. He'll bide his time, and just hope that nobody else makes their presence known.

Last week I read that there may be a ministerial re-shuffle in the offing, so that may throw up the odd hint or two.

But Abbot is also a former Laborite isn't he?