Estimating your raw marks in HSC, low ranking schools and estimating your ATAR :D (1 Viewer)

[anomalousdecay]

Hey all.

I finished my HSC in 2013 as some of you may know.

I made a thread after finishing my exams called "ATAR bingo" which can be found here:

http://community.boredofstudies.org...ance-counsel-estimates/314989/atar-bingo.html

Basically it is a thread explaining how a bunch of us tried to estimate my marks and ATAR.

Now I am going to speak about how this can apply to yourselves when trying to estimate your HSC marks.

So with the estimates in the thread, most were slightly off:

These are my original estimates here:

English Advanced:[85/105]

Mathematics Extension 1: [55/70]

Mathematics Extension 2: [64/100]

Chemistry: [80/100]

Physics:[80/100]

Economics: [70/100]


Going off other 2013'ers raw marks ordered and everything, I found that my approximate raw marks were:

English Advanced: [70/105] Examination mark: 79

Mathematics Extension 1: [52/70] Examination mark: 91

Mathematics Extension 2: [62/100] Examination mark: 88

Chemistry: [74/100] (19/20 in multiple choice) Examination mark: 88

Physics: [86/100] (14/20 in multiple choice) Examination mark: 92

Economics: [65/100] Examination mark: 73


So in general, after doing 2 months of 8-10 hours a day of past papers and marking them using the HSC marking guidelines and sample answers my estimates were a bit off. Here are the reasons why estimates can sometimes be off:


- For English I was under the misconception that all my essays would get 13+/15 or 16+/20 in the HSC. However, for English, it matters how well you respond to the question given on the day. I struggled to properly address Hamlet and by the time I got to Module C I was so tired I felt a little brain dead. However, I did still estimate on getting over 80/105 raw despite doing all of that.

Why? Because my essays were not good at all, but I kept on re-doing the same mistake over and over and over again to the point that doing all 4 years of past papers 4 times each did not make a difference. I needed to fix up my essay writing first. So I was doomed to a 79. Bottom 45% of the whole Advanced cohort.

- For Mathematics Extension 1, I am not sure why I got less than 55/70 raw. I went home and calculated everything the same day exactly according to Carrotstick's solutions that I got 55/70. No more, no less. Maybe my writing was too messy at some stages of the paper, but I am not sure. Top 35% of the state? I'll take that.

- For Mathematics Extension 2, I calculated everything the same day according to Carrotstick's solutions and I seemed to have estimated 64/100 raw. However, this included "half marks" and the whatnot. So in the end I wasn't too far off by getting something along the lines of 62/100 raw. Top 40% of the state? I'll gladly take that too.

- For Chemistry I was sure that I would get 80/100 raw at the minimum. When I marked my papers at home I would always get over 80, mostly around 84/100. I was expecting a definite band 6, and then boom! out pops an 88 with a 74/100 raw mark. I don't know how I got 55/80 raw in the rest of the paper after smashing the multiple choice. I'm predicting that maybe for Chemistry I never fully understood how the marking criteria is completely different every year and each year the markers set new standards. Also, there were a few curveballs for me in the paper, whereas in Physics I felt there were none. Top 15% of the state? Good enough.

- For Physics, I was expecting around 80/100 raw because that is what I would usually get when doing past papers at home. Considering I got 14/20 in multiple choice, I thought my Band 6 chances would be gone or borderline. Considering 83/100 was the cut-off for band 6 this year, I would have surely been gone with that. However, somehow remarkably I got 72/80 raw in the rest of the paper. I walked out of the test thinking that I got 25/25 in Age of Silicon though (too bad they don't award option module state ranks) and the test was filled with calculation which I was sure to get all right except to lose one silly mark (so around 25/26 of calculations). Overall this means that I got between 22-27/29 for the other part of the paper involving short answers not including the calculations. There were no curveballs for me in the paper though and I guess I just underestimated myself in Physics. Was very happy with this mark and I'm still contemplating on whether buying back my whole Physics paper or not. Top 8% of the state? My bet ranking by far.

- For Economics I had no clue as to what I would get as I made everything up on the spot that day, made up my own concepts and considering it was the week before Physics and Chemistry, which I was very good at in short answer structuring, I decided that I would structure my Economics short answers the exact same way as I would for Physics and Chemistry as an extra practice test for Physics and Chemistry. I predicted 10/20 for multiple choice, 30/40 for short answers and 15/20 for both essays (I somehow wrote more pages for these than for English as I had more time to do them and made up random stuff). In the end I was happy I got a band 4 for doing less than 20 hours of work on Economics throughout year 12.

So overall my raw estimates were ok in the end and were a rough indicator for how well I would do. However, when it comes to English, it depends on the markers and your performance on the day, because my teachers were actual HSC English markers and told me I would get a Band 6 with those essays. However, I would not recommend estimating English because it is too broad to estimate properly. Another example is someone on this forum who never thought they would state rank English, but did in the end with great skill. There was also another person who did very badly in English Extension 2, even though they thought their project was ok.

Now for ATAR estimates:


As seen on the bingo thread, all estimates are in the 90's. My personal estimate was 93.65. I would have been happy with anything above 92 as it would guarantee me into my course, but coming from a school that was ranked the year before in the 600's, it seemed like I could get anything above 75. The rest was out of my hands and I would be unable to guess. So I set up the bingo thread for that sole purpose of making others guess and pin point my ATAR. In the end, I would say there were many estimates around 92-95 and many above 97, but none covered the range of 95-96.9, which on the day of results was likely to be my ATAR.

I was pretty shocked to get 96.4 in the end. I will take top 3000 in the state any day thank you very much. I was so happy with it too. It was enough to even get me into UNSW law with bonus points. Considering the year before, my school's highest ATAR was 88ish, and that 5 people in my year got above 90, I was extremely happy that somehow our year defied the odds and smashed it. And the fact that the previous year, someone who did all my subjects and had better rankings (first in everything) got an 80, I was not expecting to actually get above 90. Even though my estimates were saying between 90-98, I always had this feeling that I was not informed of something very important for HSC and was going to get less than 90 due to the fact that I missed some vital piece of information to get that ATAR and those good HSC marks.

In the end, Congratualtions to John Maximus for winning the Bingo with the closest guess of 96.7!

Going to a low ranked school, it made no difference on my ATAR or HSC marks. I have to say that ironically selective schools did me a very great service in rejecting my continual applications as I liked the extras involved with public schools. In the end, don't let your school discourage you. Of course, it is a little easier to spot mistakes when it comes to going to a top 20 school, as they teach students to master exams, although being at a low ranking school does not have a very negative impact on your performance. Mind you I did not go to tutoring of any form and all my study was independent with the great help of my awesome teachers. So you can get any ATAR at any school with any subject combination. I'm sure there was at least one student who got above 99.80 and came from a school ranked below 300.

So don't limit yourself. If you impose limits on yourself, then you won't beat the limits. Instead, work hard and aim for the top. Aim for that high perfect ATAR. But don't expect it so that you don't get disappointed. Just keep it as a possibility that it is possible and that you can do it. That way, as long as you get into your top preference you will still be happy. And believe me, if you aim for something above your standards, you can surely have a better chance at reaching your standard. I aimed for getting a 95 in my main 8 units and a 90 in English and an 80 in Economics. By aiming this high, but expecting an 85 in everything, I know I tried my best and can look myself in the mirror and say I gave it my best shot. In the end I was super happy even though I didn't reach those aims, but met my expectations.

So in the end I can say that your estimates can work as an ok rough guide, but not necessarily an absolute guide. Keep your estimates very wide within a frame of 10 or so marks/points as you may get lower/higher than you expected. Always aim higher than you expect/need and you will pleasantly be surprised with your results. Taking my example, I would still say that my marks were


And my ATAR aggregate is very close to this for those who are interested in scaling and the what not:





The 91.2 is MX2, 89.2 is MX1, 87.2 is Physics, 82.6 is Chemistry and 61.4 is English. I think for Economics, the aggregate for each unit would have been like 27/50. Though I did not try to accurately calculate it as I didn't care about it.


Good Luck to all 2014'ers and beyond as you are going to need it (I've seen so much stuff happen where luck is involved in HSC as well as dedication and hardwork, etc.). Just a few lucky questions in your exam papers, or a few curveballs can make a difference in getting that extra 1-2 ATAR rankings. Also, you must be constantly looking over your shoulder checking those blind spots, to make sure that you can target all aspects of your HSC and minimise losing marks. For example, I did not check the blind spots behind English and paid the price of getting 6 less than the minimum I expected.


Also, if anyone is interested in receiving tutoring for my strongest 8 units, pm me.

 

[strawberrye]

So don't limit yourself. If you impose limits on yourself, then you won't beat the limits. Instead, work hard and aim for the top. Aim for that high perfect ATAR. But don't expect it so that you don't get disappointed. Just keep it as a possibility that it is possible and that you can do it. That way, as long as you get into your top preference you will still be happy. And believe me, if you aim for something above your standards, you can surely have a better chance at reaching your standard. I aimed for getting a 95 in my main 8 units and a 90 in English and an 80 in Economics. By aiming this high, but expecting an 85 in everything, I know I tried my best and can look myself in the mirror and say I gave it my best shot. In the end I was super happy even though I didn't reach those aims, but met my expectations.

I agree with this piece of advice 110%, I personally did the same thing-aimed for a very high ATAR which I never expected to attain and never attained, but I was proud of the fact that I tried my absolute best in my HSC and was elated when I knew I could get into the course I wanted to with bonus points. By aiming for a slightly unrealistic ATAR, I think it helped me to achieve my optimal, if not, maximum academic potential. Having a never giving up attitude, coupled with genuine passion and perseverance are the key ingredients to success, not just within HSC, but within life in the long run.

One more thing, AnomalousDecay, I have very little doubt that you will be a source of inspiration for others who are from low-ranking schools and are aiming as high as they can to get into their dream university course, and potentially, entering their desired career field. Once again congratulations on your stellar ATAR, but much more importantly, I sincerely congratulate you on the outstanding effort you have put into your HSC studies and may you continue to maintain this kind of effort in all your future endeavours, whether it be within your university studies or within other arenas of your life

To all 2014ers-don't worry excessively about scaling and moderation, just put in your best effort and utilise all the resources available to you and you will be sure to achieve success-best wishes to all to ace their HSC studies this year-may you all be proud of the effort you put in and have no regrets, define your results!

 

[anomalousdecay]

Thanks Strawberrye!

Having going through the same mindset I am sure you will have a positive attitude towards all endeavours you will have in your life and achieve maximum potential in the important things in life

It is true not too worry too much about the moderation and scaling processes. They are there to make the HSC as fair as possible to all students and all that matters is that you all try your best to be happy with your final performance in the end!

 

[bangladesh]

A medicine lecturer in USYD said this.
'You cannot get 99.95 with hard work. You can get 99 with hard work, but past that it's all luck.' It really is true. Luck comes into play in your final year.


Goodluck to all the 2014ers and may the odds be in your favour.

 

[anomalousdecay]

Also, found this gem today:

Basically, I made those straight after each exam and those were my actual raw estimates after each exam.

 

[Hombad]

A medicine lecturer in USYD said this.
'You cannot get 99.95 with hard work. You can get 99 with hard work, but past that it's all luck.' It really is true. Luck comes into play in your final year.


Goodluck to all the 2014ers and may the odds be in your favour.

I made my own luck, as did 'many' (all) others who worked for 99+

Please don't diminish our efforts by saying it was all 'luck' - it's not.

 

[anomalousdecay]

I made my own luck, as did 'many' (all) others who worked for 99+

Please don't diminish our efforts by saying it was all 'luck' - it's not.

This is true.

What I mean by luck is on the lower end in the 80's or low 90's.

When you get 99+ it takes more skill. This is because you either master your courses and get state ranks or get low band 6's. Other than that, the luck only comes into play for about 0.1 of your ATAR.

But you can make that skill for yourself. Its all about discipline. So anyone who tries can get the perfect ATAR, but not only do you have to work hard, but also work smart to get the perfect ATAR and have a good study balance as I'm sure Homgood did.

EDIT:

Just to add, I'm sure some people who got perfect ATARs did a lot of hours of work, but needless to say, there are people who would have done the same or more hours but in the end, you have to effectively study to reach full potential. There are some people who study a lot for their subjects but still don't always do as well as they would think for all that hardwork. For example, I studied for English more than ext.1 math, Chemistry and Physics, but my method of study was wrong and hence I did not master the subject and in the end I paid the price for not studying it properly.

 

[Examine]

A medicine lecturer in USYD said this.
'You cannot get 99.95 with hard work. You can get 99 with hard work, but past that it's all luck.' It really is true. Luck comes into play in your final year.


Goodluck to all the 2014ers and may the odds be in your favour.

Lol I hope you don't actually believe this.

 

[anomalousdecay]

Lol I hope you don't actually believe this.

I think amirbang did lol.

But to get above 99, you can't just merely get a Band 6 in everything. If I got 90 in everything I would have gotten a 98.

To get above 99 you need to get around 95 in all of my subjects. It is a lot harder to get a 95 in something than getting a 90 in something. And that extra effort requires skill not luck.

Luck only comes into play for 1 mark for a course. This does by no means have an effect on someone getting above 99 because the aggregate is already insanely high for that 1 mark to make a difference to the aggregate.

Its more the opposite really. Luck can have a slight 0.5 or in some odd circumstances 2 point difference when you are getting 98 or less. But above that and it gets extremely difficult.

Approximately:

95 ATAR ---> 400 aggregate

99 ATAR ---> 455 aggregate

That is a lot of marks to make the little difference of 4 ATAR.

 

[iStudent]

Firstly, congratulations on meeting your expectations (you're quite an inspiration)
But i have a question -

doing less than 20 hours of work on Economics throughout year 12.

Why?????

 

[Examine]

I think amirbang did lol.

But to get above 99, you can't just merely get a Band 6 in everything. If I got 90 in everything I would have gotten a 98.

To get above 99 you need to get around 95 in all of my subjects. It is a lot harder to get a 95 in something than getting a 90 in something. And that extra effort requires skill not luck.

Luck only comes into play for 1 mark for a course. This does by no means have an effect on someone getting above 99 because the aggregate is already insanely high for that 1 mark to make a difference to the aggregate.

Its more the opposite really. Luck can have a slight 0.5 or in some odd circumstances 2 point difference when you are getting 98 or less. But above that and it gets extremely difficult.

Approximately:

95 ATAR ---> 400 aggregate

99 ATAR ---> 455 aggregate

That is a lot of marks to make the little difference of 4 ATAR.

I think the main challenge comes when all your subjects are level in terms of their atar equivalent (generally happens once you reach the high 98s I presume). Generally once you reach that point, not only is it harder to get a higher mark for those subs but those marks decline in the amount they increase your ATAR by. For example, if you put your subs/marks into the atar calc and they all go to 98.5 while Adv English only goes to a 90 atar, then improving English would increase your atar by quite a bit, but if you are at the point where everything goes to 98.5ish, it's really hard to increase from there both because of the reduced increases in ATAR and just the overall difficulty of doing so.

 

[anomalousdecay]

Firstly, congratulations on meeting your expectations (you're quite an inspiration)

Thank you. I'm sure with sustained effort and work you can be proud of meeting your expectations in a year's time.

But i have a question -



Why?????

This is a very good question and has reminded me that I forgot to put something in the original post.


For Economics, I didn't really like the subject. I didn't like studying it and from the beginning I knew that I would be more dedicated to doing well in my other 10 units, because I enjoyed them more. I was contemplating dropping Economics this time last year, and decided to keep it for the sake of it being a good backup in case we didn't finish MX2 in time (which was kind of rushed in the end) and the fact that Economics is slightly applicable to everyday life and that it has some relevance and help for engineering (however I would more so say that the preliminary course was more helpful for engineering than the HSC course).

For Economics, I never really had that drive to do some extra-curricular research for it or even try to memorise things. Instead, I was really interested and keen in going into extra-curricular Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry work. So I would set myself study goals and would try my best to meet them. Then I would often use time to explore extra curricular's as a form of relaxation from studying (especially during my Physics class where I would pick up a motor or some wiring and start experimenting around), when realistically what I was doing was learning content and relaxing at the same time. For English I would also enjoy talking and discussing with others regarding the work we had and how one could address different questions and stuff. It also helped me in developing a thought process of when discussing things, which was also applicable to everyday situations here and there.

So to answer your question and give advice to others, you must choose the subjects you like and will enjoy. If you enjoy the subject, then you will succeed in it with sustained effort. If you don't like the subject, you will find it a struggle and will decide to consolidate that subject with doing more work from another subject that you enjoy more. So make sure that you choose whatever subject combination you want and will enjoy, as this is the key to maximising your performance in HSC and getting the marks you expect. I would say the same for when you are going to decide on what course you want to do. Choose the course which you would most enjoy, NOT the course that other people have suggested or the one that would make you the most money.

 

[anomalousdecay]

I think the main challenge comes when all your subjects are level in terms of their atar equivalent (generally happens once you reach the high 98s I presume). Generally once you reach that point, not only is it harder to get a higher mark for those subs but those marks decline in the amount they increase your ATAR by. For example, if you put your subs/marks into the atar calc and they all go to 98.5 while Adv English only goes to a 90 atar, then improving English would increase your atar by quite a bit, but if you are at the point where everything goes to 98.5ish, it's really hard to increase from there both because of the reduced increases in ATAR and just the overall difficulty of doing so.

Exactly.

For example, 90 in MX2 is equivalent of a an aggregate for a 99.7 ATAR, and gives you an aggregate of roughly 94/100.

Getting 97/100 in MX2 requires an extra 20/100 raw marks, and will give an aggregate of 98/100, which is equivalent of a perfect ATAR, but there is so much extra effort and skill involved there that the luck doesn't make a difference.

Whereas, for me, with Chemistry, I got 88, though if I gained 2 marks and got 90, I would have gained around 8/100 extra aggregate, which may have gotten me a 96.8 ATAR instead. Getting two marks is dependent on whether the markers in the panel for your paper either get your responses or don't. It can sometimes be the difference between having a marker who can read your handwriting easily or has to skip a few words.


But for that extra effort to get from 90 to 92 in Chemistry, the aggregate would only increase by about 3/100, unlike the ground made before with 88 to 90.

And also, its much harder to gain marks when you already have a Band 6 mark, than when you have a low Band 5 mark and there is much more room for improvement in your paper.

 

[Queenroot]

My estimates are still the bomb though

 

[anomalousdecay]

My estimates are still the bomb though

If only they awarded state ranks for it

 

[Queenroot]

If only they awarded state ranks for it

What do you mean "if only"? I already have one. Which reminds me, I must put it in my signature

 

[strawberrye]

What do you mean "if only"? I already have one. Which reminds me, I must put it in my signature

I should have asked you for an ATAR estimate after I finished my exams. For some reason, I always thought you had already graduated-perhaps partially due to your freakish ATAR estimate abilities. You should put the title into your signature now-well deserved

 

[Queenroot]

I should have asked you for an ATAR estimate after I finished my exams. For some reason, I always thought you had already graduated-perhaps partially due to your freakish ATAR estimate abilities. You should put the title into your signature now-well deserved

Hahaha, thanks!

 

[DanS]

Anomalous, thanks so much for the awesome motivation and CONGRATS for your awesome ATAR. It's a great thing to just get what you were aiming for, but to beat your original goal by that much & set new standards for your school means so much more - you must have been super happy!

Thanks again, and good luck!

 

[anomalousdecay]

Anomalous, thanks so much for the awesome motivation and CONGRATS for your awesome ATAR. It's a great thing to just get what you were aiming for, but to beat your original goal by that much & set new standards for your school means so much more - you must have been super happy!

Thanks again, and good luck!

Thanks mate. I was supremely happy

Good Luck to you too for this year and I hope for the best for you to achieve your goals in the HSC and get into that dream course!!!