By How much will the Australian Dollar Depreciate? (1 Viewer)

[tau281290]

"Australia's dollar fell for a 12th day on speculation earnings from the nation's exports will drop as the prices of gold, crude oil and copper extended their slide.

The local dollar, known as the Aussie, traded near its weakest in 6 1/2 months after the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 commodities slid for the third day to its lowest since March. Exports of raw materials contribute about 17% to Australia's economy."

http://business.smh.com.au/business/dollar-tumbles-below-86-us-cents-20080813-3uao.html

Do you think it will rebound back any time soon? What are your thoughts?

There are many factors on the depreciation side of the $A. This includes the interest rate cuts, high CAD, slowing Chinese growth, and Australia banks with US subprime mortgages...

I need some thoughts from you guys, because i need to convert some $A to a foreign currency. When should I do it? $A will surely never rebound back to US $0.98.

 

[veloc1ty]

If everyone thinks it won't rebound and converts their cash now it certainly won't rebound. ;D

 

[tau281290]

What are the speculators thinking? ?? Anyone know? are you a speculator ?

 

[dood09]

in exactly 51 days, the australian dollar will be trading against the us at 78.25 cents

mark my words.

 

[tau281290]

in exactly 51 days, the australian dollar will be trading against the us at 78.25 cents

mark my words.

Actually, I just want the general feeling of the public. I just want to know more factors affecting the exchange rate. Not a mockery of me asking the question in the first place.

 

[midifile]

I hope it rebounds, or at least doesnt go down more

I'm going to America in november after the HSC

 

[veloc1ty]

The resources boom isn't slowing so demand remains high. I'd like to think US dollar parity is a psychological barrier but that probably isn't significant. As a guess, I think the recent fall may be because there is the thought that the next RBA meeting will see a decrease in interest rates (though they'll probably just sit tight).

 

[runnable]

I want to do lots of travelling after HSC so I want it to rise. As it should cuz mineral boom is not over yet.

 

[tau281290]

I hope its not over yet. China is slowing, and after the olympics they will definitely spend less on commodities. and commodity prices are dropping now ...

 

[midifile]

CommSec analysists (I watch the news) reckon that the dollar will peak at around US$1.05 in late October/early November

I hope so

 

[runnable]

CommSec analysists (I watch the news) reckon that the dollar will peak at around US$1.05 in late October/early November (parity in october)

YAY!!! Good time to go overseas.

 

[tau281290]

How do they make such a precise prediction? I wish i could do something lik that too. Well, we will have to see until Oct/Nov

 

[iamsickofyear12]

I hope it rebounds, or at least doesnt go down more

I'm going to America in november after the HSC

Yes, hopefully... I'm going in December.

 

[seano77]

I hope its not over yet. China is slowing, and after the olympics they will definitely spend less on commodities. and commodity prices are dropping now ...

I don't think there are many signs of China's demand slowing too considerably any time soon. It is expected to last for at least another decade.

 

[tau281290]

Looking back in hindsight, forecasts are grossly wrong.

 

[Smithereens]

40c by next year.

 

[tau281290]

40c by next year.

LoL Wut

 

[karnage]

Hold on, ill just get my crystal ball out.

 

[lionking1191]

I don't think there are many signs of China's demand slowing too considerably any time soon. It is expected to last for at least another decade.

well closure of and unemployment in export orientated industries is a pretty strong sign. but they are stimulating domestic demand through new rail infrastructure (lol as opposed to motorway in asian financial crisis, not very creative are they) so there's hope yet.

but then i saw another projection which said it could dip as low as 55 US cents by jan. next year so...